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A two-decades-dormant rivalry renews itself in the 2010 Sun Bowl. Those who complain about the lack of a true college football playoff forget that in the late 1980’s there was a playoff of sorts. It was the Notre Dame-Miami game.

In 1988, defending national champion and top ranked Miami rode a 16-game winning streak heading into Notre Dame to face Lou Holtz’s upstart crew. Despite the fact that the Irish were 5-0 and highly ranked, they were heavy underdogs to the visiting Hurricanes. As all Irish fans know, Notre Dame safety Pat Terrell batted down a pass on a two-point effort by the Canes to seal a 31-30 win on N.D.’s march to a national championship.

A year later Miami returned the favor by snapping top-ranked N.D.’s school-record 23-game winning streak with a 27-10 win in Miami. Miami would go on to claim the national crown that year.

Even the 1990 game, the last in the series until now, had a playoff dimension to it. That year, each team had suffered an early-season loss and the mid-season meeting at Notre Dame was essentially an elimination game in the national title race. Notre Dame dominated the fourth quarter of an extremely hard hitting game and won 29-20

Notre Dame holds an overall 15-7-1 advantage in the series which dates back to 1955. Little recalled is that Miami was once a college football doormat and considered dropping the sport. Things changed dramatically for Miami with the hiring of head coach Howard Schnellenberger in 1979. Schnellenberger almost instantly turned Miami into a national power, claiming a title in 1983.

The game has always been a clash of moral universes with Miami’s football team, particularly under coaches Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson, cultivating an outlaw culture and a lax attitude towards academics, which contrasted strongly with Notre Dame’s belief that football players should be true students. Notre Dame, however, showed in the skirmish before the 1988 contest that it was not about to be bullied and indeed the Irish were the more physical team that day.

A series of Miami coaches since then have attempted to tone down Miami’s bad boy image, with varying results both on and off the field. After prior coach Larry Coker ran off the rails with a 6-6 regular season campaign in 2006, Miami turned to Randy Shannon, Coker’s high character defensive coordinator. Shannon appeared to be making progress both on and off the field and posted a respectable 9-4 mark in 2009 and had the Canes highly ranked early on in 2010. A devastating 45-17 loss to Florida State in mid-season knocked Miami out of contention for a high finish. Losses to Virginia, Virginia Tech and South Florida in the last five weeks of the season cost Shannon his job. Assistant Jeff Stoutland takes over the controls for the Canes this game before Temple coach Al Golden assumes the full time duties next year.

So while both squads enter the contest 7-5, their play in November differed widely. While Miami was slumping, Notre Dame was busy saving its season with wins over Utah, Army and U.S.C.

Miami, while perhaps dispirited, remains a potentially lethal foe with some tremendous athletes. Moreover, if the reports from El Paso are to be believed, Miami’s trash-talking skills have not completely atrophied. While I am not calling for a pre-game fight of the 1988 sort, it will be critical for N.D. to demonstrate as it did back then that it is the more physical team.

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Miami’s Defense

Some things about Miami’s teams are constant. The Canes have always recruited for speed and athleticism over size. As a result, Miami’s defense is smallish in some positions, but possesses the recovery speed to run its way out of mistakes.

The most disruptive force on Miami’s defensive line is senior Allen Bailey. Bailey leads the Hurricanes with seven sacks and has four other tackles for loss to his credit. He will usually be matched up against Irish right tackle Taylor Dever. Look for Notre Dame to keep a tight end in early in the game to help with Bailey. If #57 for Miami spends a lot of time in the Irish backfield, it could be a long afternoon for Notre Dame.

Miami’s linebackers are on the small side but active. Outside linebacker Sean Spence has tremendous speed and is one of Miami’s most dangerous defenders. He is second on the team with 101 tackles including an astonishing 17 tackles for loss. He also has six pass break-ups and two forced fumbles to his credit. If N.D. fails to account for #31, big defensive plays could result for Miami.

Miami’s secondary is one of the nation’s best, boasting seven or eight players who would likely start for most major programs, including former N.D. recruit Ray-Ray Armstrong, who rotates in at free safety and is third on the team in tackles. Miami’s lock down corner is Brandon Harris. It will be interesting to see whether Miami is willing to risk single coverage on N.D. star wide receiver Michael Floyd. If the Canes take that risk, it will surely be Harris who draws the assignment and we might see some of the one-on-one battles that Floyd won so often in 2009 as Golden Tate drew opposition defenses to him. If Miami can shut down Floyd with just Harris, it could be a nightmare for the Irish trying to throw the ball as it will allow Miami to jam N.D.’s other receivers at the line.

As one might guess from the preceding summary, Miami is much easier to run on than pass against. Miami has proved extremely vulnerable to an interior rushing attack. The Canes gave up about 171 yards per game and 4.1 per carry this year, and those figures climb to 182 and 4.4 if one excludes Miami’s opening game romp over I-AA Florida A&M.

On the flip side, Miami’s pass defense is by any measure one of the best. The Hurricanes hold teams to under 150 yards per game, 5.9 per attempt, under 50% completions and have 16 interceptions to their credit.

This suggests an obvious strategy of running right at the defense, as Notre Dame did successfully in its gut check drive to win the U.S.C. game. However, I expect Miami to start the game crowding the line of scrimmage, anticipating the same conservative game plan that N.D. showed against U.S.C. As did U.S.C., Miami will surely try to drop defenders into the underneath throwing lanes to try to create turnovers.

It will be critical for N.D. to show some imagination in the offensive game plan early on. A couple of shots downfield to keep Miami’s active safeties from cheating up will be necessary. Miami’s cornerbacks also try to jump routes, so if they have a weakness it is to double moves. Notre Dame will also have to sometimes roll N.D. quarterback Tommy Rees (probably most often to his left to avoid Bailey) to cut down on his reads and give him more open throwing lanes. Finally, in the run game, N.D. will have to try to take advantage of the Canes’ defensive pursuit speed and tendency to overrun plays. The counter play that N.D. used to devastating effect against U.S.C. should work against Miami, as should the occasional end around. If N.D. can get Miami’s defensive back seven on its heels a bit, a heavy dose of N.D.’s big backs between the tackles will be called for.

The Irish will probably not pile up a big yardage total in this contest, so it’s critical that they take advantage of their chances when they have them. Power football of the sort that N.D. showed late in the season will be needed to turn red zone trips into touchdowns.

Miami’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

Both defenses seem to own the advantage over the opposition offense, which is why this projects to be a low scoring affair.

Miami has been an inconsistent team on offense, which shows up most clearly in the statistics of its quarterbacks. Miami is tied for the dubious honor of having thrown the most interceptions (23) in I-A football this year. The starting quarterback at the beginning of the year was junior Jacory Harris. Harris as a freshman split time with Robert Marve, who has since transferred to Purdue and started against N.D. in the season opener. Harris had modest statistics that year, but was slightly more effective and beat out Marve, leading to Marve’s departure.

Harris was more effective his sophomore year completing just under 60% of his passes for about 260 yards per game and 24 touchdowns. However, he was interception prone and had 17 tosses wind up in the hands of defenders that year.

This year Harris still hasn’t been able to beat the interception bug. Starting eight games he threw 12 interceptions against 14 touchdowns and had a modest completion percentage of 54.8. After being injured in the Virginia contest, freshman Stephen Morris replaced him. Morris actually owns a slightly better passing efficiency rating of about 119 to Harris’s 117 (for comparison purposes N.D. quarterbacks Rees and injured junior Dayne Crist are at about 132 and 129 respectively), but Morris has completed just half his passes and thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns.

Miami’s interim staff has been splitting practice time between Harris and Morris. However, Morris was apparently hurt in practice recently, forcing Miami’s hand to Harris. In my judgment, however, Harris should have started based on his big-game experience, though Morris’s injury, if serious, deprives Miami of a capable back-up or a “relief pitcher” should Harris struggle.

Miami’s capable receiving corps is led by big body Leonard Hankerson. Hankerson is essentially Miami’s answer to Floyd and boasts similar statistics, though his 16.7 per grab (compared to Floyd’s 12.5) is a testament to his ability to turn short throws into big gains. It will be critical that N.D.’s corners show the sure tackling that they have most of the year.

Because Miami’s quarterbacks struggle at reading defenses, it will be vital for N.D. to disguise its coverages. If Notre Dame fails to mix up its coverages and allows the Miami throwers to get into a rhythm it could spell trouble. That said, Notre Dame doesn’t have to do anything exotic or take crazy chances by blitzing from every angle. Moving Harris off the “spot” should be enough to cause him problems. With his gunslinger mentality he has a tendency to throw across his body and into traffic leading to interceptions.

Miami is actually much more run oriented than the squads we recall from two decades ago. The Canes average about 190 yards per game and just under 5 per carry – both excellent marks. Most of the work on the ground is done by a pair of backs, Damien Berry and Lamar Miller. Berry has been more of the workhorse piling up 865 yards with a respectable 4.8 yard per carry average. Miller has had fewer touches but made the most of them gaining 633 yards and averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. Miami, however, is mildly fumble prone having put the ball on the ground 19 times and losing nine. Having Ian Williams return to the defensive line rotation should help N.D. contain Miami’s rushing attack.

To win the game, the Irish will have to show the stout rush defense that appeared late in the year. Against U.S.C., N.D.’s defense gave up only 80 yards on 30 carries (2.7 per attempt). N.D.’s defense wrecked Army’s dangerous option attack holding the Cadets to 135 yards on 43 carries (3.1 per carry) and Utah’s previously potent running attack was held to 71 yards on 29 efforts (2.4 per carry). If N.D. can play Miami straight up on defense and hold the Canes to about 3.5 per carry, the chances of an Irish celebration at the end of the game improve dramatically.

Special Teams

Strong legged Matt Bosher handles both the punting and the place-kicking chores for Miami. He has posted an impressive 44.3 average on punts and has 14 touchbacks to his credit on kickoffs. He is reasonably accurate on field goals hitting on 12 of 16 attempts, though is only one of three from beyond 40 yards. Travis Benjamin handles most of the punt returns and has a 79-yard touchdown return to his credit. If the Irish see back-up running back Miller back to return kickoffs they would be well advised to boot it away from him. Though he has returned only five kicks this year, one was for a touchdown and he boasts an average of over 33 yards per return. Notre Dame owns the advantage in place kicking accuracy but must be careful not to give up a big special teams play.

Intangibles

Though I will call for a close game, this contest has the capacity to be a rout for either team. If the Notre Dame squad is feeling too self-satisfied after throwing the U.S.C. monkey off its back and does not bring its “A” game, Miami’s speed and athleticism could make the Irish look foolish and undo a good deal of the momentum built up during the late season rally.

Miami for its part risks being distracted and disinterested after a bitterly disappointing end to the season and the firing of Shannon. In most bowl games there’s a team that’s excited to be there and one that’s not. In this case Notre Dame is clearly in the former role and Miami the latter. The intangibles invariably favor the former. Notre Dame fans need only recall their team’s listless performance in the Insight Bowl following Tyrone Willingham’s termination.

Five Questions

Will Notre Dame’s tailbacks get 30 or more carries and gain at least 160 yards? Against U.S.C. 26 attempts for 158 yards between Wood and Hughes were enough to turn the trick. If N.D. roughly matches that, the Irish have an excellent chance to win.

Can N.D.’s defense hold Miami to 3.5 or fewer yards per carry? If so, Miami will be forced to throw more than it likes and N.D. stands an excellent chance of winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.

Can N.D. hold its own in the sack battle? Miami has recorded 37 sacks this year while allowing only 15. Notre Dame has won the sack battle this year but by the much more modest tally of 26 to 20. If the Irish hold their own here it bodes well.

Can N.D. complete at least two pass plays of over 20 yards? This may not seem like much, but N.D. has to do enough to loosen up the Miami defense to keep the Canes back seven from crowding the line of scrimmage.

Which team wants it more? Miami, even in its reduced state, is still anxious to play the role of the bully. Like most loud-mouthed bullies, the Canes can be shut up with a couple of quick punches early. N.D. players on both offense and defense must be ready to deliver, not receive, the blows early on.

Prediction

Though Miami owns some clear advantages, I will not pick against this gutsy Irish squad. Perhaps no team in the country endured a worse run of injuries nor dug itself out of a hole as deep as the one N.D. found itself in after the Tulsa game.

Though I am loathe to predict an exact sequence of events for the game, imagine that N.D. and Miami are tied at 14 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Notre Dame goes on a time-consuming drive finished off by Robert Hughes smashing his way into the end zone to stake N.D. to a 21-14 lead. Miami with about two minutes left takes the ball on a desperation drive and completes some big passes to reach N.D.’s seven yard line. N.D.’s defense stiffens but on 4th and 7 Miami completes a touchdown pass. Eschewing the chance at overtime Miami lines up on the left hash to go for two. “The pass is lofted into the end zone and IT’S BATTED DOWN! IT’S BATTED DOWN!”

Notre Dame 21
Miami 20