(Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – For the 6th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in and 2012 looks more pessimistic than 2011 to the fans: 7.6 wins and a so-so bowl.
The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just, is ND better than X? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:
- On average, fans again expect approximately 7.6 wins this year and think there’s a 2.4% chance of going undefeated.
- The biggest mover was in optimism (partly driven by the schedule) and it moved down substantially. The most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect… 9.5 wins this season vs. 12 last season.
- At the pessimistic boundary fans expect 5.9 wins this season and think there’s almost zero chance of finishing the season undefeated or with one loss.
There seem to be four levels of opponents:
- The coin tosses: Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford
- The slight favorites: Miami
- The solid favorites: Pittsburgh, BYU
- The heavy favorites: Navy, Purdue, Bye, Wake Forest, Boston College
- The solid underdogs: Oklahoma, USC
Fans are almost perfectly in line with the early lines, with a notable exception: BYU
To the experts BYU looks to be a harder game than fans think it will be.
- Fans had the most disagreement about Oklahoma and Southern Cal.
Here are the rolled up results: