(Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – For the 7th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in and 2013 checks in at just slightly more optimistic than 2012, which was far more pessimistic than 2011. It looks like NDNation is putting more stock in the BCS national championship beat down and the loss of Golson than it does in the undefeated regular season and belief in Tommy Rees.
The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just, is ND better than X? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:
- On average, fans again expect approximately 8.7 wins this year and think there’s a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
- The most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect… 10 wins this season vs. 9.4 last season.
- The pessimists are far less pessimistic than last year. The impending doom scenario has passed for the bulk of fans and even the most negative fans at the pessimistic boundary expect 7.4 (vs. 5.8) wins this season, but think there’s almost zero chance of finishing the season undefeated or with one loss.
There seem to be four levels of opponents:
- The coin tosses: Stanford
- The slight favorites: Oklahoma, Michigan, Southern Cal
- The solid favorites: Arizona State, Michigan State, BYU, Pittsburgh
- The heavy favorites: Temple, Navy, Air force, Purdue
- Fans had the most disagreement about Air Force, Pittsburgh and BYU
There are four games that are out of line with Vegas odds: Stanford, Michigan, Arizona State and Air Force, but overall almost dead even.
- ND fans are more 9% more pessimistic about Air Force
- ND fans are 7% more optimistic about Arizona State
- ND fans are 9% more optimistic about Michigan
- ND fans are 14% more optimistic about Stanford
Here are the rolled up results: