Irish, Panthers Seek Credibility

Notre Dame returns home to face Pittsburgh on Saturday in a matchup of teams looking to enhance their respective bowl resumés. Although these programs are 5-2 on the season, each lacks a victory against a team with a winning record from which to argue that its success is not merely the product of an easy schedule. Although the Irish won’t necessarily become a BCS candidate by winning this contest, a loss will certainly relegate them to a lower tier when bowl invitations are extended.

Pittsburgh could still qualify for a major bowl by winning the Big East, but its 54-34 defeat by Rutgers last week did significant damage to that strategy. The Panthers opened with an inexplicable loss to Bowling Green before reeling off five straight wins and ascending to the national Top 25, but their defensive collapse at home against the Scarlet Knights erased them from the rankings and left their fans, coaches and players wondering what happened.

The loss also was costly to Dave Wannstedt’s team from a personnel standpoint. Quarterback Bill Stull suffered a neck injury and his participation in this game is very questionable at this point. Wannstedt said on Tuesday that “Billy was at practice yesterday observing things. We’re just going to take things with him day-to-day. Everything we’ve received from Billy and everything that we’ve received from the doctors has been nothing but positive, so that’s good news. It has not been determined whether he will play, or how much, or what his status is this week – that will be made at a later time.”

Almost forgotten in the quarterback situation is the fact that Pittsburgh also lost its starting center, Robb Houser, who has been the leader of an effective offensive line. C. J. Davis, a senior, will move over from left guard and classmate Dom Williams will take Davis’ place as the Panthers do some shuffling up front.

Notre Dame was bitten by injuries to Brian Smith and Eric Olson last week, and it appears that both will see action on Saturday. Of the two, Olson’s ankle sprain is most likely to be limiting. The rest of the squad is relieved to get a road victory after the bye week, but the Irish have plenty of room for improvement after last week’s performance in which they were not seriously tested.

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Defense

The Panthers have to be reeling after Mike Teel lit up their secondary for 361 yards and six touchdowns. Wannstedt pulled two starters last week in an effort to stop the bleeding, and won’t hesitate to do the same if Jimmy Clausen begins to pick them apart. Pittsburgh has demonstrated a strong pass rush and knows it must disrupt the quarterback to avoid another poor performance. The Irish have protected Clausen quite well to date, but concerns surfaced last week as lowly Washington was able to exert considerably more pressure than most felt they were capable of bringing.

Notre Dame will not run for 250 yards against Pittsburgh, but it must be able to generate enough yards on the ground to avoid persistent third and long situations. The Panther front seven is very good, led by middle linebacker Scott McKillop’s 67 tackles including ten resulting in lost yardage. End Jabaal Sheard leads the team in sacks with 4.5 and Greg Romeus is nearly as effective from the other side. Senior nose tackle Rashaad Duncan makes it difficult for opponents to find running room. The Irish now have four capable tailbacks and must be prepared to stick with the run throughout the day.

Clausen may employ a five wide, no huddle approach at times during the game. While this can be successful in measured doses, Notre Dame cannot afford many three and out possessions in a game that figures to be high scoring. The Irish receivers match up well with their smaller opponents and will benefit from the return of sure-handed David Grimes to the lineup.

While Clausen’s passing accuracy was below his high standard last week and must improve in this game, the outcome will hinge on the play of Notre Dame’s offensive line. They must tighten up their pass protection against stunts and blitzes, and hold blocks against better players than they faced in Seattle. The Irish must also account for McKillop on every play and keep him from dominating the middle of the field by running screens, draws and misdirection.

Pittsburgh’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

If Stull is unable to start, the highly recruited Pat Bostick will get the call. Bostick came in against Rutgers after Stull went down and performed well until an interception derailed any comeback hopes. The combination of a new quarterback and center is an open invitation for Notre Dame to bring relentless pressure. The Irish defense is coming off its best performance of the season and its blitz packages were more productive after two weeks of self scouting than in the first six games.

Tailback LeSean McCoy is the Panthers’ main offensive weapon and his elusiveness will present problems for Notre Dame. McCoy has four consecutive games of 142 or more yards, and the Irish would do well to hold him under 120. Wannstedt will continue to feed him the ball even if Pittsburgh is trailing on the scoreboard, so he must be shadowed at all times. At 5’11” and 210 pounds, McCoy represents a rare combination of size, speed and quickness.

Talented freshman receiver Jonathan Baldwin had a breakout performance in defeat with five catches for 81 yards last week, while starters Oderick Turner and Derek Kinder are above average. T.J. Porter and Cedric McGee are also in the mix and McCoy is a threat out of the backfield. Stull has effectively spread the ball around, but has only four touchdown passes in seven games. Conversely, McCoy has scored 14 times on the ground.

The Panthers have enviable balance, but keeping McCoy in check must be Notre Dame’s primary objective especially if Stull does not play. If the Irish are successful in this regard, it is doubtful that Bostick will be able to beat them. The key element for the defense is the ability to pressure the quarterback. An effective pass rush enabled the secondary to play a solid game against Washington, while hybrid linebacker/safety Harrison Smith has emerged as a playmaker no matter where he lines up.

Special Teams

Pittsburgh kicker Conor Lee is nearly automatic within 45 yards and has the experience to perform well away from home. Punter Dave Brytus is 6’4” 230, but his 40 yards per attempt is only average. Notre Dame has realized some improvement from Brandon Walker, but he is still a major question mark in a game-deciding situation.

The Panthers are only average when it comes to returns and coverage teams. Aaron Berry handles the punts, and his fumble last week led to a Rutgers touchdown. The kickoffs are returned by the diminutive LaRod Stephens-Howling, a reserve running back with excellent quickness. Pittsburgh has not broken a long return this season, but its punt and kickoff coverage teams have each surrendered a touchdown.

Summary

Notre Dame is at home and certainly has the talent to beat a good but not exceptional Panther team. The Irish are the best team Pittsburgh will have faced to date, and they will be hard pressed to keep Clausen and company out of the end zone barring turnovers and drive-killing penalties. The Panthers will score points themselves, but may have to settle for field goals on some of their drives given the absence of key starters.

Here are a few questions that will determine the outcome:

Will Notre Dame’s offensive line tighten up its pass protection after sprouting leaks in Seattle?
Will McCoy carry the ball 25+ times and achieve his 5.2 yards per carry average?
Can Bostick be effective if forced into action?
Will the Irish defense force any turnovers after two consecutive unproductive outings?
Can Wannstedt fix his porous secondary?
Which team will win the time of possession battle?

Prediction

The Irish simply need to play well. If they do, it will be good enough to win whether Stull or Bostick is the Panther quarterback. The intensity level dropped last week after the team got off to a 14-0 lead, and some sloppy play by the offense ensued. Clausen also needs to bounce back after several uncharacteristically poor throws, but he should be fine if his line does its job. While McCoy and Pitt will cause a few anxious moments, they are not as good as North Carolina or Michigan State and don’t have enough overall size and speed to win without getting a majority of the breaks.

Notre Dame 31 Pittsburgh 23