Talent vs. Execution in Baltimore

Notre Dame travels to Baltimore on Saturday to play the Naval Academy at M&T Bank Stadium. The Midshipmen broke a 43 game losing streak to the Irish last season in triple overtime, and hope to prey upon the recent offensive downturn by the struggling visitors. Navy head football coach Ken Niumatalolo has had two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, but there is not much secret to the basic ingredients of his triple option offense.

The 6-3 Middies average 29 points and an enviable 300 yards on the ground per game. Three quarterbacks have combined for only 60 passing attempts this season, but 62% have been completed for an average of over 16 yards per catch. Niumatalolo protects his undersized defense by substituting freely throughout the game to keep players fresh. Navy has managed to compete against every opponent with the exception of Pittsburgh, who handled the option attack and ran roughshod over the Middies by 42-21.

Meanwhile, the Irish were stung by the Panthers two weeks ago in four overtime periods and were shut out in an uninspired performance at Boston College last Saturday. Pride alone should be sufficient motivation to get back on the winning track, but two consecutive losses to the Midshipmen would devastate the program. Once again, Notre Dame is unquestionably the more talented team, but victory is no longer certain in a season that has deteriorated from potential redemption to significant underachievement.

Still, the Irish have a golden opportunity to secure a winning season and a bowl bid with wins this week and next against beatable foes. There is no reason for this young team to pack it in since almost all of the starters return next year along with a number of talented backups. The onus will be on Coach Charlie Weis to regain control of his team and rejuvenate the offense. The vultures have begun to circle the Dome this week after a terrible performance in Boston, and Weis responded to the heat by taking back the play calling responsibilities from Offensive Coordinator Mike Haywood.

Notre Dame Offense vs. Navy Defense

The Irish must run the ball to win, even if Navy adds rover Jeff Deliz into the box with the rest of its 3-4 defense. Ball control and time of possession will be important as Navy can burn several minutes off the clock in long scoring drives. Notre Dame must return the favor instead of relying solely on its quick strike capability. Those opportunities may be available from time to time, but the Irish will not win with another anemic rushing performance.

Jimmy Clausen has been banged up and sick in the last two weeks, and his usual accuracy has suffered. Navy’s secondary should not provide a significant challenge for the likes of Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, but they will battle fiercely on every play. Rashawn King is the team’s best cover man, while fellow corner Ketric Buffin stands only 5’7”.

Linebackers Corey Johnson and Ross Pospisil are among the leading tacklers along with Deliz and free safety Wyatt Middleton. The front line is anchored by veteran nose tackle Nate Frazier, who is by far the largest Navy defender. Frazier caused problems for Notre Dame last season and will draw significant attention again this week.

Notre Dame is relatively healthy except for guard Chris Stewart. David Grimes should see more time this week after nursing back spasms for nearly a month. The Irish can take control of the game if they are able to execute in the running game and throw the ball in situations other than the dreaded 3rd and long.

Navy Offense vs Notre Dame Defense

The bye week will allow the Midshipmen to put in a few wrinkles for the visiting Irish, but Navy will focus primarily on execution of its base offense rather than trickery. Niumatalolo employs three quarterbacks, which is probably a good idea given the amount of hits each takes in the option offense. Starter Jarod Bryant takes most of the snaps and fellow senior and 2007 starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada will also play. Sophomore Ricky Dobbs is a bigger, stronger player that could see action.

Tailback Shun White is the main threat as the pitch man and is the team’s leading rusher with just under 100 yards per game. Fullback Eric Kettani runs the dive play extremely well and at 243 pounds is difficult to bring to the ground. Tyree Barnes is by far the main threat at wide receiver, and Notre Dame cannot afford to lose sight of him.

The offensive line is not large by current standards, but center Ricky Moore and left guard Anthony Gaskins are seniors who have the most size and experience. They open holes for the Kettani and allow Bryant to turn upfield quickly on the keeper.

It’s no secret that Notre Dame must do a better job on first down than last season, when it seemed the Middies were consistently gaining seven or eight yards per play. The Irish must come through with a few three and out stands, and will be in serious trouble if Navy can string together consecutive drives of 10-12 plays.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Matt Harmon is quite proficient in the field goal department with 14 successes in 16 attempts. The Navy return teams have not been overly productive but the coverage units have not allowed any significant yardage. The Irish return teams have blocked poorly this year and don’t figure to turn that around this weekend.

Blocked punts have suddenly become an issue for Notre Dame, and it will be interesting to see if there is improvement in the time it takes Eric Maust to get his kicks airborne. Place kicker Brandon Walker did not get an opportunity to attempt a field goal last week, but he is undoubtedly anxious to get going again since his last appearance occurred in the fateful fourth overtime against Pitt.

Summary

Navy has a real chance to win if it can execute well and enjoy a higher percentage of productive offensive possessions. The Irish may score easily at times but may also stop themselves with mental errors and sloppy play. If they do this often enough, they can lose this year as well. Ideally, Notre Dame will beat the Midshipmen at its own game, which is running the football. The Irish don’t necessarily have to outgain Navy on the ground, but there cannot be a huge disparity in rushing yards and time of possession.

Defensively, discipline and sure tackling are the key ingredients to control the option. Reverses and occasional play action passes must be covered, but simple tasks such as hitting the quarterback on every play, controlling the pitch man and clogging up the dive play will pay the largest dividends.

Here are a few questions that will help determine the outcome;

Who will win the battle of first down when Navy has the ball?
Will the Irish run the ball more than 50% of the time?
Can Clausen return to form after a poor showing against Boston College?
Which team will make more plays of 20+ yards?
Will the Irish size advantage turn into physical dominance?
Which defense will force turnovers?

Prediction

Notre Dame needs this game badly, but Weis will be challenged to transform his offense into a finely tuned machine after stumbling around in the dark last week. The game will be close and Navy will once again fight to the bitter end. The question is whether the Irish will blink in the face of another motivated foe or if their effort and execution will finally match their talent. There simply is no excuse for anything less, but Irish fans may be less than satisfied with the final margin.

Notre Dame 28 Navy 27