USC Awaits Reeling Irish

Notre Dame concludes its regular season schedule with a visit to Los Angeles to play the University of Southern California in the Coliseum. The Irish are significant underdogs after an inexplicable loss to Syracuse, and there are concerns as to how well prepared and motivated the players and coaches will be after being dragged through a media firestorm this week that focused on the job security of head coach Charlie Weis.

Asked about his team’s mental state after last week’s loss and the prospect of facing USC, Weis replied, “Well, if it’s ever going to get the players’ attention after a tough loss, this gets your attention.” Despite the magnitude of the challenge, Notre Dame has nothing to lose this week, and a win in this series for the first time since 2001 could very well stabilize the program after a brutal month of November.

Pete Carroll’s fifth-ranked Trojans are trying to improve their standing in the BCS and keep their championship hopes alive. Their lone loss to Oregon State is problematic in that USC not only needs the teams ranked above them to lose, but they also need an assist from Oregon if they are to simply win the PAC-10 conference. The only situations under USC’s control at this stage are its performances against rivals Notre Dame and UCLA.

The Trojans have never needed extra motivation in this rivalry, but they will undoubtedly be ready to play well after a bye week and additional time to focus on the Irish. Carroll summed up his approach earlier this week at his press conference.

“We had a very good bye week with an opportunity to do a lot of things. It's a great opportunity for our kids to finish up their season, the seniors, here at home against Notre Dame. So we're really excited about that opportunity, want to make the most of it. We put together a really good week of work that will allow us to go out and play real well and hopefully get a great win.”

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. USC’s Defense

The Irish have struggled on the ground against good teams this season, and the Trojans yield less than 100 rushing yards per game. The defensive line is anchored by tackles Fili Moala, Averell Spicer and Christian Tupou, who comprise a formidable rotation. Their efforts allow linebackers Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing to wreak havoc on opposing ball carriers.

USC has a trio of accomplished pass rushers in Everson Griffen, Clay Matthews and Kyle Moore. The support a truly outstanding secondary led by free safety Taylor Mays and corners Cary Harris and Shareece Wright. Senior strong safety Kevin Ellison rounds out the starting group, which has allowed only three touchdown passes all season. To underscore the talent level, nickel back Kevin Thomas leads the team with three interceptions.

Jimmy Clausen will be hard pressed to find open targets and time to throw, so he must be accurate with short passes mixed with straight ahead runs to move the ball. USC is fast in pursuit and will likely shut off the stretch play on the ground and the deep middle of the field through the air.

Whatever the Irish tactics, it will be difficult to sustain offensive success against the Trojans. Carroll and his defensive staff are known for their ability to adjust to the opposition, as evidenced by the grand total of 19 points that his team has surrendered during the third and fourth quarters.

USC’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

Balance has been the key for the Trojans this year. The running game produces over 200 yards per outing, with three quality backs running behind a young but well-coached offensive line. C.J. Gable has earned the most carries lately, while Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight also see considerable action. Each is a legitimate breakaway threat. Senior guard Jeff Byers is the stabilizing force on the line, while left tackle Charles Brown may be its most improved player.

The passing game has produced 28 touchdowns in 10 games. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has matured in his second season as the starter, hitting on 65% of his passes. The leading receivers are Patrick Turner and Damian Williams, while fullback Stanley Havili is targeted quite frequently on third down. Speedster Ronald Johnson must be accounted for when he comes into the game.

USC’s strength is based on the ability of Sanchez to spread the ball around to a number of talented players, and the tendency for the line to wear down its opponents. It is simply quite difficult for any defense to match up athletically with the Trojans, and the Irish will be susceptible to the big play if they get caught in a blitz at the wrong time.

Notre Dame should concentrate on stopping the run and hope that Sanchez does not have the time to pick them apart. This strategy worked for Oregon State, as Sanchez could not win the game through the air when the Beavers held the USC rushers to a mere 86 yards.

Special Teams

The Trojan specialists, as one might expect, are quality players. Kicker David Buehler is very accurate, although he is called upon to convert extra points far more often than field goals. Punter Greg Woidneck is steady and few of his kicks are returned. USC has a real advantage in its return teams. Stafon Johnson and McKnight bring back the punts while Ronald Johnson and gable return kickoffs. Each has the ability to change field position during the game or even to score.

The Irish have experienced problems in the punting game of late, where Eric Maust is a half-second slow in launching his kicks. Punt and kick returns have not produced very good results this year and do not figure to improve against the swarming Trojans.

Summary

Notre Dame will find it very difficult to move the ball with any consistency against Carroll’s dominating defense. The Irish must get enough push up front to generate yards on the ground and Clausen must be decisive and accurate. Turnovers, which have plagued the team on the road this season, simply cannot be part of the equation if the Irish are to have a chance to win.

The Trojans will look to run the ball and isolate Notre Dame’s linebackers in pass coverage against a cadre of talented backs and receivers. The bye week will give Carroll time to bring a few surprises, but at this time of the year it’s more important to be healthy. As far as the intangibles are concerned, USC is sure to be highly motivated while the attitude on the Irish sideline may deteriorate rapidly if the game starts to slip away from them.

Here are a few questions that will help determine the outcome:

Can Notre Dame’s defense hold up physically and stop the running game?

Will the Irish be able to move the Trojans off the ball and run straight ahead?

Will Clausen’s receivers be able to get open against USC’s suffocating secondary?

Can Notre Dame avoid costly turnovers and keep the game close?

Will Clausen perform well in his return to his home state?

Can the Irish match the intensity that USC will bring to this game?

Will USC’s explosive skill position athletes hurt the Irish with big plays?

Prediction

Notre Dame will have problems sustaining drives against the fastest defense it has seen this year, and they have not demonstrated the ability to line up and play power football. Conversely, USC will try to end the suspense early and administer a beating, but they have the staying power to slug it out if the Irish rise to the occasion and play to their potential.

All things considered, a win over the BCS bound Trojans seems out of the question. The best Notre Dame fans can hope for is a competitive game with minimal mistakes. This will allow the team to walk out of the Coliseum with its head held high. The worst case, which is a more likely scenario, is definitely not for the faint of heart.

USC 45 Notre Dame 3