NDN Probability Poll
posted by Scott Engler
It's what you've been waiting for, the annual NDNation Probability Poll. Please choose your estimated probability that Notre Dame will beat each of the teams on the schedule. In addition to the match-up, placement in the schedule, location of the game, maturation of players, etc. are all considerations. We'll aggregate these and report back on them before the Nevada game.
S05 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC
S12 @ Michigan 3:30pm ABC
S19 MICHIGAN ST. 3:30pm NBC
S26 @ Purdue 8pm ABC/ESPN
O03 WASHINGTON 3:30pm NBC
O17 SOUTHERN CAL 3:30pm NBC
O24 BOSTON COLLEGE 3:30pm NBC
O31 Washington St. 7:30pm NBC(SA)
N07 NAVY 2:30pm NBC
N14 @ Pittsburgh TBA
N21 CONNECTICUT 2:30pm NBC
N28 @ Stanford 8pm ABC
S05 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC
S12 @ Michigan 3:30pm ABC
S19 MICHIGAN ST. 3:30pm NBC
S26 @ Purdue 8pm ABC/ESPN
O03 WASHINGTON 3:30pm NBC
O17 SOUTHERN CAL 3:30pm NBC
O24 BOSTON COLLEGE 3:30pm NBC
O31 Washington St. 7:30pm NBC(SA)
N07 NAVY 2:30pm NBC
N14 @ Pittsburgh TBA
N21 CONNECTICUT 2:30pm NBC
N28 @ Stanford 8pm ABC
38 Comments:
You left out the fighting Connecticutters.
I have to politely ask what ND fans are smoking with these responses. A 50% chance of beating USC? A 100% chance of beating Navy? We haven't beaten USC since Bob Davie coached ND and didn't get our 1st first down until the 4th quarter last year.
We lost to Navy 2 years ago and came within a possession of losing to them again. 100% indicates no possible chance of losing. For as smart as we say we are, anyone voting 100% doesn't understand numbers or probability.
I understand optimism, but why bother voting if you're not going to take it seriously?
- Ray
Class of '98
I wholeheartedly agree with Ray
- David
Class of '04
Ray, if the choices presented to you are 100 or 90%, it is not unreasonable that people choose 100 as the choice that most adequately represents their view. If one were to ask you what the probability of you winning the MegaMillions is, 0% chance or 10% chance, I'd hope you'd recognize 0% is the best answer.
Sorry to poop on your fun, but it annoys me greatly when people pull out the "you don't understand numbers" crap. In my experience, those who say such a thing have confused any exercise with numbers to be true logical math, which it is not.
Nick '97
Nick -
Results of polls like these are what alienate people from Notre Dame. I love my school - from the community service to the academics - but exercises like these turn me off.
Over the last 2 years, I was the guy on here saying that we would be terrible and I caught a lot of heat on the boards until the end of last season where people started opening their eyes. I hope Weis got the message that his arrogance over the first 4 years wasn't the answer and that our players need to work harder on conditioning and strength training. I hope Tenuta finally gets free reign to run the defense and that it's not just rhetoric from Weis. I hope Clausen becomes a leader and stops making poor decisions. Those are a lot of "ifs".
We blew a two-score lead against Cuse, collapsed against UNC, almost blew Navy, and couldn't move the ball against USC and BC. Even with all that said, our schedule (finally) sets up favorably. McCoy and Brown are gone from Pitt and UConn and programs like Purdue and Michigan are in transition. Washington and Washington State are a joke. That equates to a likely 6 wins right off the bat. Still, we need to play and win the games.
We SHOULD go 11-1 based on our experience at the skilled positions. REALISTICALLY though, 9-3 is a better bet. Our lines on both sides of the ball have been weak since Weis arrived and the big uglies up front are who determine games. I see us losing to Michigan State, USC, and tripping up against an inferior opponent like Stanford.
Obviously I hope the results are better, but to reiterate my point earlier, we shouldn't brag about being 100% certain to do anything this year. If anyone is that confident in any game, they should be willing to lay 1 million to 1 odds...and no sane person would ever do that.
-Ray
Class of '98
Good grief, Ray. The responder made a good point. There is no 95%; there is only 90% to 100%. If someone felt that we have a 97% chance to beat Navy (not unreasonable), why would he or she choose 90% over 100%. Perhaps you would like the absolutes replaced - 99% for 100% and 1% for 0%. That would make you happy. The rest of us will just have to be content with not being brain dead.
Fern
Fern -
Our roster consists of the same players who lost to Navy 2 years ago and narrowly escaped defeat last year. To put our chances at 97% against a team that has been consistently bowl eligible based on those facts is laughable. How you find 97% to be "reasonable" defies all logic. That's why people say ND fans drink the Kool-Aid.
-Ray
HOLY COW harry carrey style it's a poll.... for fun....why does everyone have to analyze it and call people foolish and ignorant for their answers....if there would have been a 120% option for washingtona and/or washington state i would have picked it....and it has no reflection on my mathematical or statistical aptitude....it has to do with belief and PRIDE --> the intangibles that really count.
Go Irish.
NZ
Lads, Lads, Lads, First and formost who ever put the Nevada Poll together obviously does not know much about Nevada Football. Why only did the ploo go to a possible 60% as an option.
We have a much better chance to lose to the best Nevada team ever than to PITT, MICHIGAN,UCONN,STANFORD,NAVY.
Why? because out West they are picked to be neck and neck with Boise State to win their Conference and need to beat our Irish to be BCS eligible.
Their College Football Hall of Fame Coach has been planning on this game since it announced by that dummy , former AD Kevin White. Based on Coach Weis and his last two opening day games at home we got embarressed by a so so Georgia Tech team and almost choked to a terrible, I mean terrible San Diego State team. Based on our last game in Notre Dame Stadium with many of the same players in when we got whipped by a horrendously bad team and fired Head Coach in Syracuse and then did not show up against USC excpet to get Jap Slapped all over the place. After Weis lost to navy, Sryacuse, North Carolina,Pitt and other national heavy weights we had better not take Nevada lightly.
They score in droves and have the Pre Season player of the year from their Conference in their QB Kapernack.
Plus they have a big time running back and fine recievers. It will be a shooting match. We could be down by 28 points in the first half and have to fight our way back to make it close.
Nevada is for real in the beginning of they eyar. because depth of talent is not as crucial as in the later part of the season.
We ad better be ready for a 49-45 game and hope our kickers make the Pats and FG and hope Jimmy and the backs and W/O's and TE's are on fire.
Or we are going to lose to Nevaa and badly on opening day.
On paper of course we should not lose.But tell that to Navy, NC,PITT, SDSU,AIR FORCE,SYRACUSE,Michigan State and Purdue.
Boise State , Fresno State and now nevada can beat anybody on a particular day.
So kick some wolfpack tail Irish next week or we are going to get bit in the tail and hind quarters and really and truly hit rock bottom.
Just a warning.
Do not take Nevada for granted. Or wthe whole Irish Nation are all going to be praying to the porceline god
NZ -
I can have pride in my school but also call it as I see it. Sorry, but I'm not going to be like the numerous people who came on here last year and predicted that our team would travel to USC and pull off a monumental upset. Or be like the people back in the day who said Demetrius Jones was the next Tony Rice. That's just goofy.
The thing I like about NDNation is when real fans come on here and provide real insight for games...not just thumping their chests and disagreeing with people who don't show blind allegiance to the team. Nothing would make me happier than going 12-0, especially since I'll be at 4 games screaming my lungs out. At the same time, I'm just asking people to be a little realistic with their opinions. After all, is this a pep rally or a sports website? Out of respect for all the people writing the articles on here who put in the hard work, I hope we all want the latter.
-Ray
I voted for the least on each one.
Until I see this team against Nevada I am not drinking any Kool-Aid.
Nothing short of a resounding defeat of Nevada will show that this team is ready to compete.
We lost to Syracuse, remember?
After Syracuse, nothing is 100% but if you can't feel positive at the start of the season and hope for the best (10-2) and fear the worst (7-5) you are not the typical Irish fan who lives and dies with the team each year.
Bob '41
I'll go with Coach Holtz's comments, he knows more than anyone posting here (including me).
Jim
The poll really needs a "choose your own adventure" setting: one set of rankings for if we smoke Nevada in the opener, one set if we pull a SDSU on Saturday. In the first case, we can be really confident. If the second happens, well, I might change a few of my answers to 20%.
Seriously Ray, give us all a break. Just because you disagree with someones "opinion" doesn't make you right and them wrong. They are just that "opinions". That is what makes these message boards great. I don't agree with everything you have said, but I am not calling you names and saying that you are out of your mind. I am sure there are several people on here who think that your pessimistic views are way off base, but they aren't telling you to "get real". While you may be a realist, you need to understand that all "fans" are drinking the Kool Aid. That is what makes them "fans", which is short for Fanatic. Otherwise we would all be neutral observers.
Do I think that there will be some games closer than the poll indicates? Absolutely! That is what makes college football so great. I still think we will win at least 10 games. In fact, I think we can and will beat USC this year, but will probably stumble somewhere else along the way. Yes, we still have many young men who lost to Navy two years ago, but they no longer have their coach from that team and those same young men are no longer Freshmen, who are completely wet behind the ears. Go Irish! Shock the world! or at least win 10 games and shock Ray.
You guys all talk about these "ifs"
"If Jimmy can lead, If the D can step up, If this if that....blah blah blah blah."
"We lost to Navy two years ago with the same players."
Like a few wise fans stated below. ....I'm not taking Nevada for granted, and I'm not saying a WORD until I see how that O-line is firing off the ball. One thing I did like to hear from Holtz and Herbie is how "Physical" the line is playing.
The O-line has been the crux of the problem. It is the reason the "same players who lost to navy two years ago" lost that game. We couldn't even run on Hawaii.
I would love to evaluate clausen when he has a running game to compliment him. I would love to evaluate the D when they don't have an offensive line playing so bad that they are on the field every four plays. AND....the D had depth now.
I think the sky is the limit IF....and this the ONLY IF....that O-line can establish the run. I shouldn't say that is the only if...I want to know if Weis is a true motivator like holtz?? Can he get his guys to BELIEVE they can beat MSU, USC, or anyone who steps in their way.
IF they can run the ball I'm really looking forward to us controlling games and igniting a crowd that is on edge for success. Remember the roar in the late 80's and early 90's, USC in 2005, and Michigan last year that can spread throughout the stadium??
Like a broken record....All of this won't happen if we are still fat, slow, and clumsy on the O-line.
Polls don't matter. Let's go play the damn games.
Don, that was the best thing I read on here, speculation and opinions are great, however, lets play the games!!! GO IRISH
Being a HUGE ND fan, I feel I have the right to say this. You guys are all coming off as a bunch of NERDS. Now lets relax and get ready for a great year. Don't worry about Nevada (I will attend this game) you saw what happend to a Hawaii team that thought they should have been in the NC game a few years ago. Georgia beat them by 60. These kids go to Nevada because they couldn't go to a super conference.
Anonymous -
Good thing you're attending the Nevada game. All our problems are solved!!! You're right. Because we beat Hawaii without Jones and Brennan, the WAC doesn't pose a threat to anyone. That's why OU, with the best RB on earth, lost to Boise State a few years ago...because the WAC is so weak.
I'm also amused by the guy who asked the Irish to win 10 games to shock me. I'm the one who said we should go 11-1...but would likely finish 9-3. A couple of years ago when we finished 3-9 did you predict that we'd finish undefeated because you're a real fan?
To reiterate some other (sane) points, our O-line needs to step up, we need our coaches to do their jobs, and we need to take every game seriously. If we do that, we have a chance to make some noise.
Ray
We beat Navy 44 times in a row. I think 100% is pretty reasonable for the next 40 years. USC is starting a Freshman and lost their #2 receiver and an offensive lineman along with many key starters on both sides of the ball. Therefore 50% is quite reasonable.
Ray,
Are you a Purdue grad?? Just because Appalachian State beat Michigan in "The Big House" doesn't mean the country should start ducking the Southern Conference. I am sure the Wofford Terriers will have a great season this year. Don't give yourself a WAC attack Ray, different breed of athletes. PS. I hope by attending the SC game will also solve our problems.
why isn't 100% an option for every game? I happen to believe that we will win every game. Because I have great faith in my ability to predict the outcomes of football games, I always assign a 100% probabilty to my prediction.
Either we're going to win (100%) or not (0%). We're going 12-0.
I'm glad that we get to play this year's schedule, containing this year's opponents, with this year's team. A lot of people here seem to believe that a Syracuse game in 2008 or a Navy game in 2007 tells us what we need to know about playing games in 2009. This is incorrect. Different year, different team, different opponents, better results.
perpo
- Andy, '98
No, I'm not a Purdue fan lol
However, the WAC has won a major bowl game in the last 15 years and it also has a team ranked higher than us to start this season. We shouldn't take Nevada lightly.
Our poll indicates that we're going 12-0 this year. I hope you're all right. But first, I hope we win this weekend.
-Ray
Ray - Sorry to inform you, but most of the people posting on here wear blinders regarding ND football. I'm glad they do, because that keeps them coming back for more and keeps a fan base out there. But I couldn't agree with you more. I love everything I'm reading about this team so far, but when its 21-13 Nevada in the 3rd qtr, Lou's 3rd consecutive year of predicting at least a 10 win season won't mean squat.
I'm a die hard. I don't sleep the night before games. I feel sick to my stomach when watching us lose. My all time favorite sports moments are topped by ND highlights. But for anyone to have high confidence in this team before seeing what they do out there is nuts. Talent alone we should be 11-1. But there's more to it than that, so I agree with you - 9-3. What I wouldn't do for 11-1 but I don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong. - The Piper '97
With a pre-emptive apology to the guy who will help us win the Nevada game - here is the NERD update.
To correct Ray's last post, these polls do not suggest a 12-0 season even thought there is the expectation of greater than 50% winning each game (even though USC was less than 50% - oops). That is like betting that the roll of a die will be less than six and rolling the die 12 times - even though the odds each independent roll favor it being less than six; in reality 2 of the 12 are expected to be six.
So the actual calculations based on the poll numbers to date result in ND winning 9.54 games and losing 2.46. Since you can't tie or win 0.54 of a game, we can round it to 10 and 2; though 9-3 is equally likely.
I think we will go 10-2; struggle against NV, pound UM, beat USC - and lose 2 we shouldn't - maybe MSU and Stanford.
As for Nevada, be cautious - they are dangerous and improved if you believe the media. The best evidence of this is to look at the state by state votes. People from Nevada who probably know this team best only have ND's chances at 80%.
Sorry if I bored you (I hope it was a little amusing), but I had to put my wonderful ND degree to use.
ND Math '91
As I view it, most of the comments are from alums of the last ten years...You seem to get it; we, ND, are no longer dominant !!! In the early 70's, considering Navy as a threat, never entered the conversation...Maybe Charlie should stay in the press booth, as I still don't think he understands how to motivate young men, and maybe never will.
Bob '74
Fans vote with their heart. Domers are not unique in that way. What I mean to say that is not the reason people dislike Notre Dame fans or if it is that is like pot calling the kettle black.
As for numbers... who really cares it is a fun exercise not a GRE question.
I hope the team and coaches see this data. I hope it serves a reminder to them the faith that friends of ND and the Alumni have in the team and coaches.
I hope these statistics remind them all that their fans have confidence in their ability and desire to perform to their best ability which seems to be great.
The data itself is random and casual at best, but the responses represent are good wishes and faith in these young scholar/ athletes.
"God, Counrty, and Notre Dame..."
nddomer '77MBA
@Ray:
While I agree with the points you're making, I feel like a lot of people on this board feel more strongly than you do about the talent that is on the team this year.
You can't say it's the "same" talent, b/c they are a year older. In the NFL, 1 year doesn't usually mean much, but in the college game it still does.
B Marley 05
I know everyone is worried about USC, and MSU is always a toss-up, but why is no one worried about Pitt? They are probably the second-most talented team we play (USC the clear first), have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and are senior-heavy almost everywhere. If their senior qb (stull) figures out how not to throw away games, aren't the Panthers more of a threat than we're willing to admit?
Mike G
Class of '97
...2009: 9-3...if Clausen doesn't get hurt...
Good Lord people. Its a poll for fun. Relax and dont tak it so seriously. Hell yes 100% of beating those teams, if not smell ya charlie
joe '03
Uconn Cash...geesh
Go Irish!!
All of you need to realize you are living vicariously through a bunch of young men and a coach that has forgot more about football than most of us have learned. Get real and support our boys out on the field and throw your ego's away, quit arguing and putting the athlete's down, and again just be there for the boys on the field.
JR
Bill Browning said.
Charlie is still the coach and will never regain my confidence in view of the two previous seasons.
How many times over the past two to three years has the other team been in third and long and complete a first down pass?
We never safty blitz or remotely put any pressure on the quarterback.
Untill we can stop teams in a situation like that and beat the Syracuse and Pitts we are supposed to I will remain a Charlie doubter.
put any pressure on the
Hope springs eternal in the fall. It seems there are a lot of folks drinking the kool aide out there and I guess I am one of them. I want to believe that this is THE year things turn around. Reminds me of when I was a Brooklyn Dodger fan waiting till next year - which finally came in 1955. I get a kick out of these polls - they are meaningless but do give you insight into how folks feel out there. There is only one poll that counts - what the scoreboard says at the end of the game.
Carl Pio ND '66
I would like to ask this question to those of you who know how awful the OL has been for several years. How is it possible that these same guys have gotten significantly better? I have read Rock's analysis on depth and experience, but I can only see these guys being slightly better than last year, which keeps them in the bottom 10% of OL's in the country. We'll know more at about 4:00pm saturday. I hope I am wrong. Go Irish.
I feel as though I must weigh in and I DO drink the Kool-Aid. We MUST not look past Nevada or, for that matter, Pitt. They are potent and athletic. It will all begin and end with massive improvement on the O Line. We can then run to keep their D honest and proceed to pick apart their secondary. With respect to Nevada in particular, our D line better step the heck up, too. Nevad has the ability to BURN teams, in bunches. But our D can be rested if the O Line helps keep them off the field. I would be beyond thrilled with 11-1 or 10-2 but that only happens if we beat Nevada. A loss to Nevada may well mean we go 6-6 because I doubt seriously Charlie can motivate them to bounce back from something like that AND losing to Nevada means we really are no better than the last few years. As said by one poster, we will know a lot more by 4:00 on Saturday.
Wil ND '80
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