Past Performance, Future Results

(The Rock Report) - Of the many challenges confronting businesses, one of the hardest is how to accurately forecast the future to make business decisions now. So many variables have changed that our old reliable indicators aren't much use right now. Many indicators, which traditionally have been forward looking indicators, are, because of the economic shifts and nature of the recession, probably now lagging indicators. For instance, consumer spending has traditionally led us out of recessions, but given how over-extended consumers have become, they're probably going to lag the recovery this time.

Likewise so many things have changed about Notre Dame Football from 2007 to 2009, I'm finding it hard to look at 2007 and 2008 and extrapolate forward. We've just come through the worst senior talent level deficit I've seen (and most have ever seen) on a Notre Dame team. I can't find one instance of any team performing well with so few and untalented (by recruiting standards) upperclassmen on the roster. One can certainly make a very valid case, as I have before, that Notre Dame should have performed better than it did, but I can't find a relevant comparison point... anywhere. The closest I can come to is death penalty teams.

In other words, I have a very low degree of confidence that 2007 and 2008 are good indicators of coaching success going forward because there's no comparable benchmark. And coaches who did perform well in the past aren't exactly lighting it up on the field now. For example, Notre Dame fans were very high on Steve Spurrier in the past, but it doesn't appear Spurrier is at the top of anyone's coaching wish list now

Whispers of a whole new level of talent on the field, a better attitude and player strides are pretty normal fare for this time of year, but the difference is, that for the first time since 2005, those whispers are actually supported by the facts. The numbers of upperclassmen are double what they were and the talent in them is at a level that exceeds 2005.

We've made coaching changes that many of us have been clamoring for. Jappy Oliver and John Latina are rightly out after years of under performance. Mike Haywood is a great guy, but he and Weis did not see eye to eye and that affected the team's cohesion. Importantly, there are now upperclassmen who can assume leadership roles; the prior classes just didn't have the talent and numbers to effectively lead. It's hard to lead as a class when everyone knows the future is in the underclassmen ranks, there was a distinct separation on this team between the upper and lower classes.

Given the large upgrades in talent, coaching and maturity, even cynical watchers who've endured the pain of the last two years, are raising expectations. The fundamentals are there for a turnaround.

Additionally, Weis and his staff seemed to have survived the news vacuum that led to a wave of negative recruiting against Notre Dame. In the absence of any other news, opposing coaches (led by Urban Meyer) hammered ND for having an unstable coaching situation. You would think Urban would be able to recruit on his own positive performance at this point, but all's fair and he'll pay the price for playing that card if things turn around. We're, without winning on the field, in the top 10 in recruiting right now. If Notre Dame starts winning (and we're still in on five-star players at Running Back, Wide Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker and Defensive back) the Irish could very well land another top 5 class.

In other words, the worst appears to be behind us. Even the schedule looks favorable. I'm expecting cautious optimism to be replaced by enthusiasm around the country (even those ESPN guys) and Notre Dame to emerge as a dark horse pick in many circles, which should have a positive effect on recruiting in the coming month.

I don't expect this to be a year without some tough spots, but a 2-3 loss year or better is looking increasingly likely. I'd say the odds are pretty high Weis will be back in 2010. The challenge is to identify what matters now as an indicator. The talent level is unquestionably high. The schedule isn't daunting. Was Weis in 2005 the real indicator of potential or Weis in 2007 and 2008? Tough to call, but what's obvious is that he's playing a much better hand in 2009.

Of course, all of this is speculation, but it's all we have right now.

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