They are currently 6-7. They have to win their two ACC tourney games to get above .500 - NCAA tourney pre-requisite. And not 100% guarantee that they would be chosen at 8-7.
Right now I would not be betting on North Carolina making a trip to the NCAA tournament to defend their title. Of course, much stranger things than that have happened, and I do think (although as you said, it's not definite by any means) that they will get a bid if they win the ACC tournament.
the NCAAs. They wouldn't deserve it but I wouldn't be surprised if they made it at 8-7. They would have a good RPI and wins over SU and Duke/ ND to end the season.
They were mediocre all season (8-6 I believe) and then turned it on and won the title. Their talent level showed itself in the tournament.
North Carolina was unseeded last year. I don't think that'll be the case for us this year. Projections I'm seeing have us seeded anywhere between 2 and 4. Amazing for a down year.
I think we may have hurt ourselves somewhat by scheduling so sparsely this year, although we will have 13 games on the schedule if we reach the finals of the ACC tournament.
We definitely have the talent to be playing on Memorial Day. It's just stringing the efforts together at the right time.