I don't fundamentally disagree with anything you've said, although I do think ND's recruiting classes are consistently overrated by the various services.
In any event, ND has done poorly in the area of recruiting the elite five star kids. They typically have five star egos and tend to sign with five star recruiters like the few coaches we've discussed. The consistent theme I've heard regarding Kelly is he does not invest the effort over long stretches of time to develop personal relationships with the top kids (or any recruits, for that matter). He's truly a CEO coach in this respect. Saban and Meyer are relentless recruiters and relationship-builders, but many coaches find it distasteful or just too time consuming.
Edit: I will say this about Weis, and it may be the only good thing I can think of to say about him at all as a coach: His relationship building effort with Manti Te'o really paid off.