Stop saying that

Seriously stop. I like you too much. You sound foolish to math people.

Would you play Russian roulette with a near coin flip chance of blowing your brains out? Likely doesn’t mean what you think it means.

In statistical terms, when evaluating the likelihood of an event, such as the survival of an individual for a certain period, it's important to consider the probability in relation to common benchmarks or thresholds that define levels of likelihood. While there isn't a universally accepted set of thresholds for terms like "likely," "unlikely," "very likely," etc., in many contexts, including weather forecasting and risk assessment, the following scale is often used as a guideline:

Very likely: >90% probability
Likely: >66% probability
About as likely as not: 33%–66% probability
Unlikely: <33% probability
Very unlikely: <10% probability
Given the calculated probability of approximately 56.25% for the 80-year-old white American male to live another 4.5 years, this event would fall into the "About as likely as not" category. This means that while there's a greater than 50% chance of survival beyond 4.5 years, making it technically more likely than not, it doesn't reach the threshold of being categorized as "Likely" in a more nuanced, statistical context