None. He will win 15 states, if that.

I doubt that he will get 40% of the popular vote.

His only chance is if Biden is the nominee. I fully expect that, once Trump wraps up the nomination, Biden will withdraw for "health" reasons and the Dems will put up someone else at the convention. I suspect Newsome but I saw someone touting Michelle Obama. Then Trump is the ranting old man in the race.

If the Democrats could come up with a less left-wing candidate than those two (and I can't think of one offhand since Manchin left the party), it would be a slam dunk. That person would pull suburban women and independents. I suspect that a percentage of Republicans will simply refuse to hold their noses and vote for Trump a third time. Thus, he doesn't get 40% of the vote. And he probably drags all the down ballot candidates to defeat so a good day for the Democrats.