I would stridently disagree that the initial invasion
by WilfordBrimley (2024-02-05 21:20:00)
Edited on 2024-02-05 21:34:02

In reply to: I am becoming more and more convinced as I get older...  posted by Kbyrnes


of Afghanistan was performative. It was arguably the most effective campaign the U.S. military has ever waged in terms of strategic outcomes gained relative to cost or investment in personnel, materiel / logistics, and so forth. If anything, we probably should have gone a little heavier in the first 3 - 6 months (the 10th Mountain and 25th Infantry should have been close behind the SF ODA teams and CIA SAD). It is to Bush's (and Rumsfeld's, as much as I dislike the guy) credit that they leaned heavily on their staffs and combatant commanders and high-leverage, low visibility assets to get it done. It also doesn't hurt that the gap between U.S. military and the rest of the world in the world in the fall of 2001 was the largest it has ever been and potentially will ever be. Besides severely underestimating the willpower and reaction of the American voting population, Osama's biggest strategic mistake was that he didn't quite understand just how good the U.S. military was at the time, especially relative to his own assets.

Performative would have been 100,000+ on the ground within 3 - 4 months and flattening everything from Kandahar to Jalalabad. Instead, we went light, fast, and local.

It all blurs together in the regular person's mind these days - even the people who pay close attention to these kinds of things - largely because we were there for a generation, but Afghanistan didn't really turn truly south until late in the 2000's. There was somewhat regular but predictable violence throughout the country for most of the first 5 - 6 years (which is an eternity in an insurgency), but for those paying attention, it was the Helmand River, the Arghandab, the Korengal, and Nuristan in 2007 - 2009 that were very clear canaries in the coalmine. If anything, Obama's surge from 2009 - 2011 might have been a bit performative, but even then there was a good bit of operational and strategic need for it.


You miss my point...
by Kbyrnes  (2024-02-05 22:29:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...I agree that it achieved significant military goals and had met strategic goals within the conceptional four walls of the concept of defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, that begs the question of whether those military goals served our larger national strategic interest. The 20 years we spent there do not seem to have been. I'm open to contrary argument on that point.


I am not missing your point at all; you are applying
by WilfordBrimley  (2024-02-05 23:16:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

an anachronistic viewpoint to what, at the time, would have been sound strategic decision-making and by every educated account in the long-term strategic interests of the country. There are hundreds - thousands - of factors that changed between the initial invasion and 6 - 8 years later when the war really turned for the worse; then there would have been a thousand more factors that changed between the late Bush and early Obama years and the mid-2010's when we started clearly signaling that we were going to exit; then there would have been a thousand more factors that changed in the interim between then and having former allies dropping out of the cargo doors of C-17's to their deaths thousands of feet below. Those are all inherently unknowable factors years and decades before the ultimate outcome was decided. That doesn't mean the actions theretofore were "performative".

Your use of "performative" in your original post implies a public relations element of military decision-making that potentially, at times, supersedes the operational and strategic goals. There are innumerable times in American military history where that has happened - the Doolittle Raid, Operation Linebacker, large chunks of the initial phase of Iraq in 2003 - 2004 up until Fallujah I, et al - but the idea of the initial invasion of Afghanistan being categorized as "performative" is preposterous.


My view is literally anachronistic, I suppose...
by Kbyrnes  (2024-02-06 14:08:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...because I'm looking at it from 2024. In that strictly literal sense, everything anyone says here about stuff that happened in the past is anachronistic.

I'm not convinced that the decision to go into Afghanistan was "sound strategic decision-making and by every educated account in the long-term strategic interests of the country." I am re-reading chunks of Andrew Bacevich's book, America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History--I have my copy here in the office. Here are some snippets regarding the period between 9/11 and our venture into Afghanistan:

"Every new administration arrives in office bearing its own foreign policy vision, which rarely survives the encounter with actual events. The vision of the new Bush administration, which came to power on January 20, 2001, was more ambitious and more concrete than most. It derived from specific convictions that President Clinton had willfully disregarded. Chief among those convictions was a belief in military assertiveness as the foundation of American global leadership....The events of 9/11 created the opportunity to act on this perceived imperative....Rumsfeld's very first impulse on 9/11 itself was to frame the problem in the broadest possible terms. 'Need to move swiftly...go massive--sweep it all up, things related and not.'"

I don't question that once the project was assigned to the military, that it was carried out as you indicated, with diligent efforts put forward and militarily strategic goals established and often met. As I noted previously, I feel that some of the Afghan warmaking had performative elements, and I would say those were coming from those in Washington D.C. and at the Pentagon; not the generals and service members who were in the field, who performed most admirably. But I wonder if, in flexing our muscle for all to see, we had reasonably thought out what the end-state of that military effort would be.




Agreed, all around.
by Kali4niaND  (2024-02-06 14:46:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

And to make sure this point is understood... I think every member of our military served admirably, with valor and courage. I appreciate and honor their service.

I just think, other than a small group intent on taking out bin Laden, they shouldn't have been sent at all to Afghanistan or Iraq, at any scale.