We must punch Iran in the mouth and double down with Saudi

We must punch Iran in the mouth and double down with Saudi
by shag (2024-02-06 20:41:53)
Edited on 2024-02-06 20:44:32

In reply to: There, does everyone feel better? posted by BeijingIrish

It sounds like a tactical move, but I argue it’s far more strategic in nature. Saudia Arabia and UAE represent the most rational players in the region. KSA is close to normalizing relations with Israel, current operations notwithstanding. Both hold great influence economically (OPEC and financial industry) and have a permanent US military presence unlikely to be scaled down anytime soon. I’m aware of Saudi’s historical flaws but they pale in comparison to Iran. I also spent five months in Riyadh working with government and military personnel; although anecdotal they were all extremely happy to have us there as a hedge against the Iranians/Shia.

Deterrence of Iran has failed. Neither our current course of action nor the JCPOA would curtail their nuclear ambitions. They have grown ever-happier to push/exceed limits WRT power projection via proxies and they feel safer than ever knowing the most we’ll do is hit a weapons cache or radar site (outside Iran, of course) after putting them on notice. If we want to deter Iran, we need to change the strategy and hit them directly. Refineries, Bushehr and IRGC facilities come to mind - there are options, all within unrefueled range from Diego.

They have zero relevant allies in the region. Of course, there would be soft words spoken out against “escalation” by Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, etc. but they’ll all be giving a subdued “thank you” if we take such action.