I would say the striking numbers are the disconnect between

payroll taxes and outlays directly related to those collections (social security and medicare) since the two were supposed to offset each other by design and their divergence (5.9% collections vs 10.1% between SS and medicare in 2034) was well known and understood even back in 1973 (when the Baby Bust was literally bottoming). It was never an insurance program, at least in the actuarial sense. And it wasn't even a well-designed Ponzi scheme (that is, SS and Medicare). Oh well. We have discussed this many times in 20 years to no avail.

The good news is that in 2034 the Baby Boom issue is crowning. The oldest Boomers will be 88, the peak Boomers will be 77-79 and the youngest will be 70, while the Baby Busters will be getting into their retirement while the Echo Boom approaches peak earnings. But the next 10 years are a very ugly picture for which there is little hope.

Another bit of good news: Inflation has raised the 6.2% FICA rate cap to $168,200 in 2024. Remember when people wanted to uncap FICA but politicians worried about protecting suburban educated voters by wanting to put in a donut at $100K to $250K and then restart at $250K at the 6.2%. Well, we are not so far from $250K now on the max, and so close that uncapping with no donut (are you really going to protect say $175K to $250K or $300K with a donut) seems inevitable. Uncapping on the FICA max will be a the first step.

What else might happen? I suspect we will see capping balances on Traditional and Roth IRAs at some high number (say $2.5M single and $5M married) with RMD's to get down to those amounts if balances exceed in any year or average of 3 tears. And there will be some kind of benefits means testing - first in SS and then with Medicare.

Ultimately, Medicare will have to decide what it can and cannot afford to cover. And if you want something that is "nice to have" you will pay for it yourself.

Of course these adjustments may not happen, and then the budget deficits will continue to be close to double the historical amounts as a share of GDP. Will there be the political will to address this? It will be interesting...since Trump co-opted the "throw grandma off the cliff" objection from Dems and has promised to never touch SS or Medicare. I am guess Biden won't touch it either.