Almost 0% chance.

Maybe Thomas or Alito will question whether this constitutes an insurrection in a concurrence. But assuming the opinion is based on a finding that state courts lack authority to remove a presidential candidates from the ballot based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment absent a criminal conviction or congressional authorization, they don't have to say anything about whether Trump engaged in insurrection. Roberts will want as much support for this as possible, and no way any of the liberals sign on to an order finding "Trump didn't do insurrection." The question wasn't a focus of oral argument at all.