I'm assuming you mean before the election.
by Tex Francisco (2024-02-09 10:14:32)

In reply to: Is there a realistic way for the Democrats to move on from  posted by IAND75

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I think it's almost certain he will not finish a second term if he wins.

still a weird thing to say *
by ravenium  (2024-02-09 10:43:40)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I think he'll resign. I'm not implying he'll die. *
by Tex Francisco  (2024-02-09 10:57:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Ahh! yeah, I'd hope it's on the table *
by ravenium  (2024-02-09 13:13:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I'm terrible at math...
by John@Indy  (2024-02-09 10:53:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...but even a dumb civil litigator like me can read the Social Security Administration's mortality tables.

Doesn't mean he has to die. *
by Jeash  (2024-02-09 11:40:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Well, I did say I'm stupid. *
by John@Indy  (2024-02-09 12:47:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

About 7%, says the mortality table
by ravenium  (2024-02-09 13:24:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

And rising to a bit over 10% by 85.

Which is averaged over humanity and doesn't factor in good/bad things regarding genetics and things specific to the person.

Of course at a high level, it's more than I'm comfortable with, having a father the same age, but nowhere near "likely".
I agree in all respects.
by John@Indy  (2024-02-09 13:34:23)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I just misunderstood the post to be presuming he's likely to die before 1/20/29, which plenty of people have done here but not Tex in this instance.

Yes. Is there a way for the Democrats at this point
by IAND75  (2024-02-09 10:19:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

to nominate someone else?

There obviously has to be some mechanism. Any candidate could have a health event, even death, prior to the nomination or election that could unexpectedly cause them to be unable to run.
The parties don't have to have primaries or caucuses.
by cujays96  (2024-02-09 10:22:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

They do it as a live poll. So, they could pick whomever they want. However, how do you pass over a sitting VP, if that's what you think you have to do to win?
They could even do it 60s or 50s style
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-09 11:58:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Have a few impromptu non-binding primaries or stack it so some of the later states have more significance. Release the Biden delegates.

Have the contested part of the convention a month or two before the actual convention. If someone picked up steam in the primary slate the unpledged folks will gravitate that way. There are a chunk of states that vote after Super Tuesday you could do this with.
If Harris doesn't have the votes
by Kali4niaND  (2024-02-09 10:36:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

she doesn't have the votes.

While I think the Obama Coalition is a critical part of Democratic electoral math, Kamala Harris isn't the only option to leverage that coalition together against Trump. A Whitmer/Booker ticket could do it, as an example.
Does the DNC's 'super delegate' construct help
by 88_92WSND  (2024-02-09 11:54:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

or hurt in this situation? On the one hand, it can't do anything unless there is a contested convention (ie second round ballot and after), but on the other hand, it's a small but significant percentage of the votes which can act on behalf of the party, not a particular candidate.

Acting to select someone who isn't losing it would be a strong contrast to the Romperroom National Committee. Even if they didn't select Harris, the fact that they were willing to toss the old white guy out would seem to be a good message. Klobuchar and Warnick would also be good candidates- Klobuchar actually won candidates in 2020, and Warnick has good name recognition coming off of his recent campaigns. He's also new enough in the Senate that he doesn't have any baggage, and a good campaign message would play up the Obama precedent. Drawback for the party is that they'd be creating two vacancies in the Senate, but it would likely result in only one seat loss (unlikely that Georgia would name a Democrat as the temporary fill until a special election).
They'd only help if Biden stepped down
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-09 12:00:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Biden is going to have the vast majority of delegates pledged to him. If he's out they could help swing a vote between a few candidates.

The real question I have is where do the delegates fall ideologically? Are they moderate Biden types or are they stuffed with a bunch of squad types?