Who is "he" in your last sentence? Trump or Biden? *
by krudler (2024-02-09 11:29:39)

In reply to: I didn't think he was that bad  posted by gregmorrissey

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Sorry, Biden. Biden is going to lose in November. *
by gregmorrissey  (2024-02-09 11:43:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Depends on which polls one believes
by ravenium  (2024-02-09 13:25:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I tend to have lost a lot of faith in polls in the past 8 years.
The people who decide elections
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-09 14:12:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Haven't really processed who will be running and the stakes. Both college aged kids pissed over gaza and moderates who only tune in after labor day.

Trump's escaped the public eye for the last few years. Once the primary is called I think the race will look different. Like him or hate him, Trump really brings it out of people.
I'm not even looking at polls. GA, AZ, WI
by gregmorrissey  (2024-02-09 14:12:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I don't think Biden has as much wind at his back as he did in 2020. He won GA, AZ, and WI by a combined 42,918 votes. I don't think he holds them. I could be wrong, and sentiment can change a lot between now and November. Maybe the Dems will be able to run enough ads in October to make voters in these states realize that Trump was a disaster even before Covid. I'm not hopeful.

But, since you brought it up, I decided to look.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Georgia 2020 Polling

FiveThirtyEight.com: Arizona 2020 Polling

FiveThirtyEight.com: Wisconsin 2020 Polling
I'm starting to think Trump will win Georgia.
by NDBass  (2024-02-09 14:53:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Increased Democratic turnout certainly helped Biden in 2020, but I think the independent and moderate/anti-Trump Republican voters are what enabled him to win the state. I'm starting to think a good deal of those voters will not vote for Biden in the numbers he will need to win the state again. They will either abstain or vote for a third-party/write-in candidate. Yesterday's events certainly couldn't have helped.

There will be a lot happening between now and November for all involved, but that's what I think will happen as of now.
This is the same WI
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-09 14:17:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

That voted a liberal SCOTUS justice in by overwhelming margins (race run on abortion) and voted Evers back in over a younger MAGA guy.

Biden doesn't need Georgia, though demographically it's only getting more blue with the expansion of Atlanta.

Arizona has a dem governor, Kari Lake will be on the ballot again, and the state party is in shambles.

The real question is, who wants to lose this more? Each side is trying really hard.
You might be right
by gregmorrissey  (2024-02-09 14:41:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I've been wondering how much the job flight from North to South will impact the voting demographics in GA and AZ. Also, will the abortion vote impact the federal elections in the same way now that it's moved to a states' rights issue?

As far as needing GA, I guess it comes down to how comfortable you are with holding PA and MI. If so, then Biden only needs one of AZ/GA/WI which seems winnable, I guess.

I'll admit that I'm probably discounting too much the fact that it's only February, and as you noted, what other hot button issues might be on the ballots to drive turn out. Ultimately, I'm settling on your last sentence. I think the Dems lose it because let's face it, at this point, how could the Republicans lose it? What could happen between now and November to make someone voting for Donald Trump decide not to?

The economy
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-09 14:55:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If inflation keeps improving and we avoid recession I think people won't want to go back to Trump. If it falls apart I fear we're in for Trump part 2.

Listen to a stretch of any Trump speech now or any truth social post. Trump is less vigorous and more unhinged than 2020. Biden's age is priced in. I really don't think that's true for Trump.