In reply to: Depends on which polls one believes posted by ravenium
Increased Democratic turnout certainly helped Biden in 2020, but I think the independent and moderate/anti-Trump Republican voters are what enabled him to win the state. I'm starting to think a good deal of those voters will not vote for Biden in the numbers he will need to win the state again. They will either abstain or vote for a third-party/write-in candidate. Yesterday's events certainly couldn't have helped.
There will be a lot happening between now and November for all involved, but that's what I think will happen as of now.
That voted a liberal SCOTUS justice in by overwhelming margins (race run on abortion) and voted Evers back in over a younger MAGA guy.
Biden doesn't need Georgia, though demographically it's only getting more blue with the expansion of Atlanta.
Arizona has a dem governor, Kari Lake will be on the ballot again, and the state party is in shambles.
The real question is, who wants to lose this more? Each side is trying really hard.
I've been wondering how much the job flight from North to South will impact the voting demographics in GA and AZ. Also, will the abortion vote impact the federal elections in the same way now that it's moved to a states' rights issue?
As far as needing GA, I guess it comes down to how comfortable you are with holding PA and MI. If so, then Biden only needs one of AZ/GA/WI which seems winnable, I guess.
I'll admit that I'm probably discounting too much the fact that it's only February, and as you noted, what other hot button issues might be on the ballots to drive turn out. Ultimately, I'm settling on your last sentence. I think the Dems lose it because let's face it, at this point, how could the Republicans lose it? What could happen between now and November to make someone voting for Donald Trump decide not to?
If inflation keeps improving and we avoid recession I think people won't want to go back to Trump. If it falls apart I fear we're in for Trump part 2.
Listen to a stretch of any Trump speech now or any truth social post. Trump is less vigorous and more unhinged than 2020. Biden's age is priced in. I really don't think that's true for Trump.