You might be right

I've been wondering how much the job flight from North to South will impact the voting demographics in GA and AZ. Also, will the abortion vote impact the federal elections in the same way now that it's moved to a states' rights issue?

As far as needing GA, I guess it comes down to how comfortable you are with holding PA and MI. If so, then Biden only needs one of AZ/GA/WI which seems winnable, I guess.

I'll admit that I'm probably discounting too much the fact that it's only February, and as you noted, what other hot button issues might be on the ballots to drive turn out. Ultimately, I'm settling on your last sentence. I think the Dems lose it because let's face it, at this point, how could the Republicans lose it? What could happen between now and November to make someone voting for Donald Trump decide not to?