I wrote the following piece on Cuba 3 years ago:
Cuban health care—another myth dispelled: The failure of the regime to protect the Cuban people from the ravages of Covid now threatens political stability on the island. For decades, the Cuban health care system was hailed as a best-practice model worthy of emulation by developing countries, but it turns out that the hype is just that. In fact, the system may well be nothing more than a cover for a worldwide forced labor/trafficking operation mounted by a desperate, bankrupt country to generate hard currency (“Behind Cuba’s Covid Uprising”, Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2021).
A “1989 moment”? It would be a mistake to suggest that the recent turmoil will lead to a free Cuba anytime soon. From its inception, the communist government has been ruthless in protecting its exclusive hold on power. This time around will be no different—the streets will be cleared, and repressions will follow. When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1992, Cuba was left isolated and without the subsidies which had sustained its shambling economy. This led to widespread food and energy shortages, an era Fidel described euphemistically as the “special period”. What was special was the poverty, suffering, starvation, and, as always, ruthless measures to suppress dissent and punish disloyalty.
In response to the break-up of the USSR, the Castro regime demonstrated a certain agility in dealing with its economic problems: The island was opened to tourism, and Europeans, Canadians, and Americans willing to evade the travel embargo brought in badly needed foreign exchange. Venezuela provided energy in return for military assistance. The Cuban government cynically exploited family ties by setting up remittance programs to facilitate the transfer of funds from Cubans in the US to their relatives in Cuba. Remittance flows, mainly from the US, grew exponentially to the point where they became a major component of GNP.
Cuba also rented out its medical professionals. Cuban “aid” programs were really part of an export business. Doctors and nurses were conscripted and sent abroad in conjunction with Cuban medical missions, but the services were not provided free of charge. The revenues from the missions, paid in hard currency, went straight to the government. The doctors and nurses received a pittance. This model continues to be employed in conjunction with Cuba’s delivery of technical assistance in the areas of medicine and public health.
As we see in Hong Kong, raised expectations can be a cruel hoax. Even so, anger directed toward the regime on the part of Cuban citizens is mounting, and it is cumulative. Memories are long; grievances accumulate. For Cuba, the question is not “if?” but “when?”. In Eastern Europe, the unraveling occurred over a period of 46 years: East Germany in 1953; the Hungarian Uprising in 1956; Prague Spring in 1968; martial law in Poland in the early 1980’s; then, the revolutions of 1989.
When it happens in Cuba is up for debate. Among other factors, social media will act as an accelerant. It is likely that within a decade or two, another date will replace July 26th as the Dia de la Revolución. The new holiday will be celebrated with a double-header at Estadio Luis Tiant, the stadium built for Havana’s major league baseball entry.