What I find unusual in all this...
by El Kabong (2024-03-25 23:18:05)

In reply to: Only in Chicago. Our guy losing by 4800. Voila 9400 votes!  posted by airborneirish

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...is every time the new vote totals are announced, Burke's lead shrinks.

Every time.

What are the statistical chances such an unusually-significant portion of the much-harder-to-verify mail-in votes are in support of the candidate endorsed by the person who pretty much rules Cook County?

If it was a random sampling you would not expect it to be
by wpkirish  (2024-03-26 10:17:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

different. However, it is not exactly a random sampling. The SEIU and CTU were supporting her and are quite possibly the two best organized operations out there. I would expect they were pushing early voting especially for some of their retired members. In the old day the well run wards had their own operatons to get mail in votes. With the demise of those organizations and the advent of early voting most of the new leaders focus on that to the extent they focus on voter turnout at all.

The difficult part of vote turnout work is you need lots of volunteers to do it well because the goal is not to turnout every voter but to make certain the people supporting you go to vote. You cant do that without having done the work to identify your voters and most of the organizations no longer have the ability to do that.

SEIU and CTU (and to a lesser extent other unions) comntinue to do that work focused on their members.

There could be a demographic explanation and/or...
by Kbyrnes  (2024-03-26 01:15:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...an organizational one. If one organization emphasizes mail-in votes much more than the other, I would expect to actually see more mail-in ballots favoring the side that encouraged them more.