Being brittle doesn't necessarily mean that

An autocracy breaks at the first sign of trouble. It means there's often very little give between seeming like things are going swimmingly and revolution.

My medical analogy is someone who can't feel pain. They can push through annoyances with ease and can seem superhuman at times. But pain is there for a reason. Without the early warning system you stop suddenly when you've missed all the early warnings pain should have given you and now you're in deep.

At some point, Russia is going to have to mobilize people who aren't so easy to mobilize. Their labor shortages will get worse. They'll see more terrorism and the secret police spends more time trying to clamp down opposition. Hopefully we and the Europeans can keep Ukraine going long enough to make that happen.

I'm looking at you Mike Johnson. Please do the right thing.