Is it more like 1938 or 1914? Arguments based on past

history are notoriously tricky. We were assured that Iraq in 2003 was Munich 1938 all over again if we let Saddam survive. Well, no, the analogy couldn't have been more misleading, so much so you're tempted to say it was offered in bad faith as a moral bludgeon. You don't write this in bad faith, that I know. Those of us who from the get-go have been apprehensive about going all-in for support of Ukraine have worried about out of control escalation, to ends that we don't want to think about. I'm not interested in engaging in a detailed discussion of how much armed support we should be giving, when it should have been offered, etc. I don't have the info at hand to do that. Maybe more useful is how people think it will end. My own view is that the most likely outcome of this war is the cession of territory to Russia, starting for sure with Crimea and then to the parts of the Donbas already occupied. I am ready to eat crow if that outcome should be no more a resolution than was the cession of the Sudetenland. In the meantime, my personal red line is the NATO duty to defend the Baltics. I'm glad NATO got no further east than that.

One further comment: we will have to disagree how serious a guide George Weigel is about the moral health of western Christianity. He reached hack status a long time ago in my book. As for Carl Trueman, never heard of him.