Manchin is probably the better analog

But his win (and Tester's) last came in a non-Presidential year. I assume it will be tougher to go against a presidential tide which is probably the reason Manchin is not running again (and which also helps Scott and Cruz while hurting Hogan and Tester). That said, this will be a very unique presidential race as it stands.

The GOP has the best possible set up right now in the Senate. The House races could easily go the other way since numerous House pick-ups in 2022 in NY and CA benefited from off-year election.