She needs to surprise early and create momentum.
by Revue Party (2024-01-11 10:33:41)
Edited on 2024-01-11 10:33:48

In reply to: I spent 5 minutes on the 538 site and with the obvious  posted by wpkirish


If she can pull off New Hampshire and parlay that into a South Carolina win, making Trump look beatable can change the equation.

That's obviously very optimistic.


Of the eventual GOP winners, 3 won IA, while 7 won NH.
by EricCartman  (2024-01-11 14:50:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

One won both states, and that was Ford.


Yep. Momentum is huge in races like this....
by Marine Domer  (2024-01-11 10:48:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If she flops in the early primaries the race will be over quickly. But if she gets a couple of early victories it's a whole new ballgame. Hell, she might even be able to force him into showing up for a debate.


I think SC is the key for her to have any chance.
by wpkirish  (2024-01-11 11:26:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Assume she finishes second in Iowa and wins NH which seems likely SC is up next. Trump is at 52% there. The question is where to the DeSantis supporrters go. Polling to date shows a higher % with Trump as their second choice. If the Haley winning NH does not change that it is difficult to see any momentum with Michigan (64%) Georgia (55) and Mississippi (48-61) the next ones with polling.

Idaho and North Dakota are in the middle of those but I could not find any data for those states.


I'm not sure Iowa matters, but expectations are there for NH
by Revue Party  (2024-01-11 10:54:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

With Christie out, the chances for a win should be there. If she gets crushed, I think it's game over. If it's close, closer than the expected blowouts in other states, that could be helpful but maybe not enough.

Winning the first primary (as opposed to a caucus) could be a game-changer.