In reply to: I spent 5 minutes on the 538 site and with the obvious posted by wpkirish
One won both states, and that was Ford.
If she flops in the early primaries the race will be over quickly. But if she gets a couple of early victories it's a whole new ballgame. Hell, she might even be able to force him into showing up for a debate.
Assume she finishes second in Iowa and wins NH which seems likely SC is up next. Trump is at 52% there. The question is where to the DeSantis supporrters go. Polling to date shows a higher % with Trump as their second choice. If the Haley winning NH does not change that it is difficult to see any momentum with Michigan (64%) Georgia (55) and Mississippi (48-61) the next ones with polling.
Idaho and North Dakota are in the middle of those but I could not find any data for those states.
With Christie out, the chances for a win should be there. If she gets crushed, I think it's game over. If it's close, closer than the expected blowouts in other states, that could be helpful but maybe not enough.
Winning the first primary (as opposed to a caucus) could be a game-changer.