I would be hard pressed to say your view is wrong - I do
by CMCIrish (2024-01-11 16:55:01)

In reply to: Obviously none of us know for certain but my impression is  posted by wpkirish

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however have a few reasons to think Haley has a shot. First, I totally get what you are saying about views about Trump being baked in, but one of those views is Trump is inevitable, and people in later primary states almost always poll strongly in favor of the frontrunner until that image is shattered. Look at 2008 - Obama was way behind Clinton nationally, Clinton was as well known a candidate as there could be, and fwiw I personally had all sorts of people telling me it was a lost cause. Then he won Iowa - which mattered back then - and the rest is history.

Second, assuming Haley is in it to win it, I have to think she's going to open fire on Trump once it is a one-on-one race.

Third, I think there have to be enough Rs who want to beat Biden. They have to know Trump is the weaker candidate and it's not a close call.

Fourth, I am convinced Trump is going to do something bonkers that will actually hurt his support if he loses NH. He has truly become a raving lunatic.

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