There is 0 chance a no labels
by AquinasDomer (2024-01-16 15:05:48)

In reply to: This is why I think that he will flame out.  posted by EricCartman

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Candidate can win a single state. Perot didn't even pull that off. Biden needs to win more hold their nose voters than Trump does. So the better No Labels does the more likely Trump wins.

Larry Hogan just ruled out a no labels run, presumably because he can do the math.

Exactly. The best Perot did was a second place finish in
by Manor76  (2024-01-16 20:26:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Colorado.

Perot was running close before he dropped out in 1992
by Flann  (2024-01-17 17:29:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

He never got his full momentum back when he reentered the race. The linked Washington Post article put Perot at 38%, Bush at 30%, and Clinton at 26% among likely voters in June 1992. Others polls at the time had Perot a close 2nd to Bush. Perot was sliding some in the polls when he dropped out in July, but he likely would have had a much stronger showing if he had not dropped out and entered which caused voters to view him as flaky.
1912: TR won 6 states and handed 200- 250 electoral votes...
by Revue Party  (2024-01-17 15:58:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

...to Wilson by dividing the vote.

If Trump somehow doesn't get the nomination, I have no problem seeing him pull a TR to derail Haily or whoever.

TR's post-presidential years weren't necessarily an admirable period. I think Trump easily matches TR's ego and hubris.

As for "No Labels," I don't see anyone on that horizon making much of a dent. Then again, it might not take much but they have to be credible (which is a low bar that the 2020 clown car managed to limbo under).

Wouldn't the sore loser laws prevent that? *
by El Kabong  (2024-01-17 18:47:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

That's a good question.
by Revue Party  (2024-01-18 11:56:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I haven't studied how the sore loser laws would affect that big, fucking sore loser.

Historically
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-16 20:43:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

3rd parties do best when people see less difference between the two parties. Bush and Clinton had decent approval ratings and both tacked to the center. That led people to say hey, a protest vote won't hurt too much.

When people see a big difference or are freaked out by the other part they become more risk averse.