Great post. I was surprised to see the backlash here about
by krudler (2024-01-18 14:15:16)

In reply to: Don’t cry for me…  posted by BeijingIrish


Milei when he got elected. Yes he has an odd look, and some of his ideas are a little out there, but given the history of Argentina and that region as a whole, I would think having a capitalist and someone who understands the dangers of true socialism would be a good thing.


He's a moron
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 14:34:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

With all the populist snake charm of a Bolsonaro.

However, his opponent was the guy in charge of the economy. It'd be like voting for a fire chief when structure fires were increasing exponentially. People were willing to try something different, even if it ended up being Latin Boris Johnson.


He has forgotten more about economics than you’ll ever know
by airborneirish  (2024-01-18 14:53:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Go back and read Plato’s apology. You need to post less on this topic.


Never thought I'd see someone defending Javier Milei
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 14:55:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

But here you are. What makes you so unhinged and upset that i called Javier Milei a moron?


I think if you read my post again and consider what I wrote
by airborneirish  (2024-01-18 15:45:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

You would understand that the burden of proof is on you and not me. I'm not the one claiming a guy who was a professor of macroeconomics and was hired as the chief economist of HSBC argentina is a moron. Certainly I am not the one saying this man doesn't understand economics. You are. Good luck.

EDIT: I should also note that posters here have a really weird tendancy to see opponents as stupid / moronic / etc. I was pilloried for saying that Trump clearly has some kind of genius given his success on twitter, marketing, etc.

I tend to try and figure out the strengths of opponents / others as well as weakenesses. That "moron" you keep posting about with so much vitriol got elected President and just dressed down the WEF live ... on the internet.

Not for nothing but he has something figured out...


You seemed to be suggesting that I was dismissing BI
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 16:22:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Which horrified me at first as I wouldn't dare even set foot into most of his realms of expertise. I even got a bit of a chuckle over his "if your CEO is at Davos, consider selling" comment as that sort of hits home. It'd be like if someone tried to tell me how security and privacy work.

Not for nothing but we perhaps have different definitions of "moron" and "genius".

I have a hard time considering Trump a "genius" at anything as I think he lucked into things by having considerable resources, people who felt they could feed off him, and people who needed something from him. Almost every single business the guy started has failed, yet somehow he personally has not been affected.

Maybe "shrewd" is better? He knows how to keep attention on him, he knows how to manipulate levers and escape consequences for his actions?

As for Milei, I will walk back "moron" under the definition of someone as being stupid. He is clearly not a stupid man. He is bombastic and really fucking weird, and he has some very bad opinions, such as thinking Trump was the best president ever and that climate change isn't real.

I am not qualified to tell you if his economic opinions will work, but they've been described as "untested" and he seems to really like to mock other economists, and I am naturally skeptical of someone who is that sure of themselves.

I think he was elected because the outgoing regime was truly awful and had no answers for what was occurring, so the populace soundly rejected that.

Time will tell and I hope for the best.

Speaking of words and meanings, "dressing down"? You won't find any positive words from me for the Davos set, but I find his "man of the people" schtick to ring false.


I wish them the best, but I am not sanguine.
by BeijingIrish  (2024-01-18 17:48:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

But not because of Milei. Rather, it seems to me that Argentina is hobbled by a deep, pervasive sickness that was conveyed across the South Atlantic by the Italian immigrants destined to become part of the country’s largest ethnic group. “Let’s see if we can do worse than we did in Libya.” Il tocco di Mida—in retromarcia.


Nine defaults, which includes 3 over the last 2 decades
by DBCooper  (2024-01-18 18:12:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Will do that.

It is weird that a country that seems to have a lot of potential has such a difficult time with its debt.


Argentina had a bigger per capita GNP than the US until 1932
by BeijingIrish  (2024-01-18 19:33:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

They have done nothing since then except to squander every advantage that should have propelled them into the ranks of developed countries. They enjoy abundant natural resources, including oil and gas; they have a small, literate, European population; they feed themselves and export the rest; etc. Yet, they present themselves to us as a permanent ward of the IMF and other multilateral institutions. They stand there, hand extended, either begging for new loans or demanding forbearance.


The regime before him helped perpetuate triple digit
by krudler  (2024-01-18 14:46:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

inflation. Economic leftism in South America has created some of the most abhorrent cases of human degradation in our lifetime. The MERVAL has already rebounded materially since his election. Let's see how he does before writing the book on him.

Bolsonaro's successor, who was also lauded on this board, is already doubling down on statist economic policies that have failed the country in the past, so it's likely more stagnation there.


My understanding is Lula has done fine
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-18 16:15:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Argentina needs someone like Milei to do shock therapy, but successful development after that has to be more balanced. If you look at the Asian countries that successfully industrialized you see more of a mixed economy.

A lot of the central/south American countries struggle with a landed rentier dynamic. The glaring unearned wealth inequality makes the region dry tinder for a strongman left or right.


I do a lot of work there, the spending leading to outsized
by krudler  (2024-01-18 16:57:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

growth is not going to be sustainable for a longer period of time, and there's a lot of apprehension in the business sector at the moment. One year is a lot of overflow from the prior year, so we'd need a longer term view before the AP declares victory for its favored party.


Bolsonaro and Milei are different characters as well
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-18 17:15:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I remember Boldonaro throwing a lot of spoils out to shore up his reelection

Milei might talk populist, but he seems to truly believe in his economic program. Bolsonaro seemed a little more Trumpy, at least from afar.


Agreed. I think Milei is serious about his plans for
by krudler  (2024-01-18 20:08:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

reform and cost cutting. Some of the currency stuff seems like a longshot to get done. Bolsonaro was definitely a lot more bluster, which is probably why he and Trump got along so well. Such an awesome country, with so many resources and such potential, often squandered by poor leadership.


I don't think populism is much better
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 14:54:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I realize the people of Argentina are willing to try just about anything, but...yikes, this guy? I don't think he has any actual ideas, just words and antics.

I would say populism has become my least favorite "-ism" these days, because it's predicated on the idea that the people know better, and they usually don't.

For what it's worth, human degradation was generally caused by military dictatorships, not "leftism". Throwing people out of helicopters is bad regardless of one's political philosophy.


the idea that the people know better, and they usually don't
by BeijingIrish  (2024-01-18 15:11:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Maybe you could unpack that one a little bit.


Indeed
by TJK1998  (2024-01-18 15:26:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

This philosophical difference is the underpinning between small government, laissez-faire capitalists (conservatives of yesteryear), and big government, pro-regulation big-brother-ists (the modern left.)

Either the masses are to be trusted and allowed to be free, or they need a heavy hand to keep them from killing themselves.


I didn't mean it quite that complexly
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 15:58:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I realize my original statement was a bit opaque and came off incredibly pompous, so allow me to stand before you as the target of empties.

What I meant was more that the examples of populism I've seen appears to be more of a "Death of Expertise" - someone who directly claims they know better than an expert on the matter of policy, programs, and governing. This seems to be what we've received with populism from the time of the Know Nothings up through Trumpism and the like today. Examples such as "let's execute drug dealers", "build a border wall" and other oversimplistic solutions to complex problems.

What I did not mean was "the elected know what is best for the people" - this is why we have representative democracy. We elect people to serve our interests, and they in turn (should!) use their time and consultation of policy experts to enact policies that benefit us as a people.

I dislike both the extremes you listed - "trusted and free", taken to an extreme, leads to bad actors spoiling things for the masses. Think pre-EPA rivers and superfund sites. I also dislike big government - I think it lends itself to being wasteful, lazy, and corrupt. My local government is a great example of that.

I guess I'm a hopeless moderate, for lack of a better term.


Re: your penultimate paragraph, I agree. *
by TJK1998  (2024-01-18 16:18:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply


Plenty of human degradation has been caused
by krudler  (2024-01-18 14:58:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

by poor economic policies (see Venezuela and what percentage of the illegal immigrants crossing our border are now Venezuelans). The people being thrown from helicopters, or gulags, or other camps are typically the enforcement method for leftist economic policies (see >100M dead in the 20th century due to communist/socialist regimes).

As noted, their stock market has rebounded significantly, trust in their economy is improving, and yes, he does have plenty of ideas. You should take a look. You seem to be coming at this from a perspective of personal animus rather than anything fact-based, but I'll reserve judgment on him until we can see some longer term results. Perhaps he'll crash and burn as you hope, but perhaps he won't.


Oh, undoubtedly
by ravenium  (2024-01-18 16:06:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I am not defending planned economies by any stretch of the imagination. Whether it's Mao or Castro, they have resulted in mass starvation and little to no improvement. Venezuela hung their hat on oil and is paying the consequences.

My contention is that cruelty is not the province of a political ideology - cruelty is cruelty. I am no fan of communism, dictatorships, or otherwise, but I don't think the right or left have a monopoly on terror.

I am not "rooting" for anyone's downfall - I hope the best for Argentina and I defer to BI's historical knowledge of the region. Given that markets are based on spirit animals and optimism, I am not surprised they are going up "anything" is better than the mismanagement they had previously.

I merely find Milei to be a showman, and I have a severe distrust of populism, but as you said, time will tell.


As our previous idiot of a president taught us…
by four pillars  (2024-01-18 20:46:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

…”showmanship” seems to be required to get elected. Perhaps the only requirement sadly. But maybe a showman who isn’t a buffoon and who actually has a strong economic background can make something work.

Hopefully he doesn’t rely solely on his dogs.


Fair enough. I can respect that. Cheers. * *
by krudler  (2024-01-18 16:13:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply