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A third point - the composition of the 40% of non-payors by irishlaw2010

is dynamic.

It includes households with retirees who paid taxes for years but now have total taxable income (SS, pension, etc.) that falls below the threshold for income tax.

It includes adults in school (trade schools, associate programs, etc.) who are likely to enter the workforce at some point.

It includes some families with younger children - say a single parent with two children earning $17.50/hour (the average Wal-Mart wage as of January 2023 although their overall minimum wage appears to be $14 per the linked article) working full-time at Wal-Mart. At 40 hours a week (if you're lucky enough to be scheduled for that many hours) for 52 weeks, it would be $36,400 a year but after standard deduction, EITC, and other child tax/child care credits, you are likely looking at no federal tax obligation. But as her children grow, the parent's income potentially improves moving to a new job/position, etc, that filer may become a net income tax payor.