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He was first elected in a squeaker by sprack
Granted, he defeated an incumbent, but he was the incumbent governor and won by just over 10,000 votes.
That any poll shows it that close at this juncture means it should be a dogfight.
I think people make a mistake thinking Florida is beet red. It's not. The problem is that voter turnout among Democrats there the last couple of cycles has been terrible, and lackluster candidates like Charlie Crist sure didn't help. If they show up, anything's possible.