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Post being replied to

Pelt me with empties in 6 months if I am wrong... by John@Indy

...but I believe this race will play out much like the Evan Bayh-Todd Young race in Indiana in 2016. Bayh, a popular former governor and senator in a red state, had an early double-digit polling lead over Todd Young, a congressman unknown outside of his district. While Bayh didn't trail in a single public poll until October, he lost by 10.

I know little about either of the two Democratic contenders. Both seem to have a wide range of establishment endorsements without an obvious ideological divide between them. Senate races turn on national issues in a way that gubernatorial races do not. Unless whoever gets the D nomination is terrible, Hogan will have a very tough time maintaining the lead. It is true that he is sufficiently popular that the Democrats will have to take the race seriously and spend money on it.