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Two points. First, in primaries, the only polls that matter by CMCIrish

right now are NH and maybe - maybe - SC. No one else is really thinking about who they are voting for. If Haley wins NH there will be a dramatic shift as the aura of invincibility is taken from Trump.

Relatedly, I don't know how much voters outside of NH have paid attention to him recently. He's become increasingly unstable and I have no doubt that instability will continue to increase and will do so exponentially if he loses NH.

Edit: I'm not counting Iowa because (a) there are no votes, it's a caucus and (b) it has been consigned to irrelevance because of its own bungling and an increasing awareness that it measures nothing relevant.