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I dont disagree with much of what you say except the idea by wpkirish

she will go hard after him. The entire reason no one has gone hard after him is because the party loves him. Christie and Hutchinson went after him and neither of them made it to Iowa. She still needs all his suporters to compete in the general.

Obviously with him off the ballot turnout will likely drop but keep in mind there were at least 11 million people who did not vote in 2016 that watched him for four years and said I need four more years of that. The actual number is likely higher when you account for Trump - Biden or Clinton-Trump voters but at a minimum it was 11 million more votes in 2020.

And it may be the influence of the Tim Alberta book being fresh in my mind but I dont know that she gets the evangelical crowd excited in the same manner or if they walk from another RINO. That book opened jy eyes to another world out there that is crazy and committed.