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  • 2012 NDN Probability Poll

    by SEE

    (Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – The 6th annual NDNation Probability Poll is underway.  Last year was the first time fans got it right.  Playing out the probabilities led to a group prediction of 8.6 wins during the season. This year’s poll is below:


    50 Responses to “2012 NDN Probability Poll”

    1. Go Irish!

      • Todd Helmeke says:

        Defense and QB are the keys to the season. Would like to see something better than a 6 – 6 season record.

    2. This team is going to be better than many expect. Neal and Daniels are going to provide the explosive ability outside to complement Eifert and the running game. If they are a threat, that will open things up. Golson/Hendrix have the tools to stretch a defense. The defense should be solid but not spectacular against everyone but Oklahoma and USC.

    3. Jim Mayer says:

      Most are probably thinking another 8 win season. I think if QB situations works out positively they could win 9 or 10 games

    4. At very best I see ND 8-4 with a real possibility of 7-5, 6-6. Navy game should be a very tough game 1. I see USC and OU as definite losses. I see a probable loss to Mich. and very tough games vs MSU and Stanford. If so then just where is this program under Kelly? I guess this will be the new norm.

    5. whitecoat says:

      7-4 will be about right. Too many QB issues to beat good teams. Kelly also not good in having the team well prepped for surprises during a game.

      • whitecoat- I think 7-4 would be mathematically impossible unless there is a cancellation LOL.

    6. I think there’s an outside chance of 9 wins if Golson winds up being what we all hope he is. But realistically, there’s basically no chance we will win at OU or USC, and at most likely we will lose one or two of the @Michigan State, Michigan, and Stanford group of games. Toss in our annual loss in a game we didn’t think we would lose, and we’re looking at 8-4 or 7-5 as the most likely outcomes this year.

    7. I actually think this season is going to be worse than many people are saying. I don’t see us having the ability to pass the ball at all and I think it’s clear that we won’t be able to defend the pass well either. Any team that can stop the run or pass well should have a good chance at beating us.

      Hopefully Kelly will realize the running game is our strength, but who knows. Also, teams might start loading the box and force us to pass. Eifert is our only down field threat and it shouldn’t take teams too long to figure that out.

      Our only chance at having a good season depends on quick development of Golson and our DBs, which could happen, but is bound to be filled with growing pains. On the plus side, we should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which will get us at least 6-6.

    8. Cliff Claven says:

      I don’t see USC on the poll. that will make 5 losses

    9. Now or never for Kelly.

      • well.. now or next year for Kelly. He’ll be given a longer leash than prior coaches especially given ND’s projected to have the hardest schedule in the nation. He’ll have to really screw things up to get fired this year (like 2-10 screw up).

    10. Andre Schwapp says:

      You irish fans or terrible I say nothing less than 10 wins and we beat U$C and Oklahoma

      • Andre- We are terrible or are we just being honest?

        • We need to be realistic. Just too many question marks and too tough a schedule. 7-5 at best.

      • I think you mean we “are” terrible, kind of like your spelling and punctuation. Regarding that thought- why are we terrible? Have you been around the last 20 years? If you had your life savings to bet on this season, how would you bet? Past behavior and past results tend to be very good indicators of the future. ND is basically a .500 team for the past 17 years or so…

        That being said, GO IRISH! Suprise me…for once.

    11. StoneyBehindTheCiderbarrel says:

      It finally all comes together. Only a loss to Michigan St. on a bad call prevents an undefeated season. A dramatic come from behind win at USC will propel the Irish to the title game. LSU will have no answer for the Irish defense as Notre Dame claims the title in the only game all year which they don’t put more than 30 on the scoreboard. The future looks bright as many underclassmen contribute to the success!!!

    12. Meh, ho hum another 8-5 season, but they are “BUILDING A PROGRAM” or something. ho hum. maybe 2014 will be a good season. maybe.

    13. Ndguru55 says:

      Hopefully we can get through BYE without much problems.

    14. Ray Schmitt says:

      (1) Depth, (2) speed, and (3) coaching additions/adjustments will carry the 2012 ND football team to a 9-3 season.

      ND fans should view this as a substantial accomplishment given the difficult schedule.

    15. Navy travels better than Irish-close game, Irish finally solve D Robinson defense, Sparty not ready for prime time yet, OU will probably be our worst loss, Pitt could sneak up on us, I predict Barkley out by end of year. 9-3.

    16. Where is the submit button on the poll?

    17. Hope that Irish special teams become key
      part of offensive strategy. Every punt and ko return is
      apotential TD play. Every blocked punt can turn a game around.
      Special Teams players should be made to feel SPECIAL. GO IRISH!!

    18. I see 8-4 this season … we may win one or two of the 50/50 games (Mich St, Michigan, Stanford) but will also lose a game we absolutely shouldn’t. Almost certain losses at Oklahoma and USC. Will be tough to do better than 8-4 with what is likely going to be a new QB … Hendrix or Golson … and trying to fill the Michael Floyd void.

      Next year … 2013 … is the season we MUST finish in the Top 5. Star QBs at Michigan, USC, Oklahoma will all be gone and our guys will have the experience. Plus more key games at home, although that never seems to turn out the way it should for ND.

    19. JimmyIrish says:

      How come 100% is an option but 0% isn’t? Won’t the skew the results upward?

    20. Is the Irish can fix the turnovers that cost them last year, I see them going 10-2 and upsetting either Oklahoma, or USC.

    21. I think Navy, Purdue, BC, Pitt and Wake are gimmies. Miami will be tough but we win. We will go two and two against MSU, UM, Stanford and BYU. I think we lose both USC and OU games but with the injuries to the OU roster who knows. So I think 8 wins minimum with possibly a ninth if we don’t choke again with 30 seconds left in the michigan game. I think this is a real possibility

    22. rgreene17 says:

      If this team does any worse than 9-3 in the regular season, it will have underperformed.

    23. BaltoIrish says:

      Optimistic 9-3 with loss to MSU, someone they’re supposed to beat (BYU?), and either OK or USC. Retribution for giving away games to UM, an end to losing to bad teams (BC or MIA) and beating someone they’re not supposed to beat (OK or USC).

      Veteran O-Line, Stable of dynamic RBs, and solid front 7 will keep them in games. If they don’t have back-breaking, stomach wrenching turnovers (can they really give up 2 99-yard fumble returns again?) I think they surprise.

    24. ArizonaIrish says:

      QB will struggle. The position requires a certain identity that Kelly cannot coach.

    25. Brian Barry says:

      GO IRISH!

    26. Anyone who thinks ND will win more than 7 is on drugs. If TO Tommy plays I don’t even see 6 wins.

    27. 10-2 regular season. One loss to either OU or SoCal and one to someone unexpected like BYU.

    28. lujackcity says:

      I am perhaps most nervous about BYU. I feel that they have a good solid football team and are sitting in the right spot on the schedule to be a “trap” game.

      A. Luck has been the key for Stanford and he’s gone, Cousins at MSU is gone, USC should be limping by the time we get to them. Denard is always a wild card for UofM and Oklahoma is going to be interesting.
      All in all it has the makings of a great year in ND Football History. I can’t wait.
      GO IRISH!

      • Jim Prisby says:

        I totally agree here! While the schedule looks daunting, how bad is it really? All I hear is that we play 6 teams that won 10 games last year. That was LAST year! Luck is gone and don’t tell me how talented the rest of the team is. You can’t say at the draft that Luck is the best QB in 20 years and think that Stanford won’t miss a beat. Cousins is gone at MSU and they lost some offensive skill players including their WR’s. Honestly the 2 teams that scare me are the 2 big road games at OU and U$C because of the dymanic, Heisman-level QB play. I think our defense front 7 is outstanding and will pressure QB’s all season. This really helps our DB’s with their coverages. Our O-line is made up of 5 road graters! IF Kelly figures this out, with the talent on the offenseive side of the ball, and doesn’t get too cute, the O will score points. Figuring for one trap game in a rough schedule, I really see this being a 9-3 team at teh worst and a successful season.

    29. Most people are not giving us much of a chance because of our schedule, also looking like crap in several of our games last year. I believe this is the season that we put all of the pieces together and have a ten and two year, plus a bcs bowl victory. GO IRISH!!!!!!!!!!!

    30. I think somewhere between 9-3 and 6-6. I see losses to Michigan, Oklahoma and USC, with Michigan State, Stanford and BYU possible losses. A loss to any other team on the schedule would indicate to me the team is going in circles. Musical chairs at quarterback will keep the team from developing confidence. If Kiel is not in the mix, he’ll transfer at the end of the season.

    31. dguerrero says:

      I don’t see us beating Oklahoma or USC. Michigan State and Michigan are ALWAYS swing games, no matter what our ranking or their rankings are. BYU is always a tough game because of their age. I think we start getting on winning ways vs. Stanford since we’re hosting them. All other games I have 70% or more confidence.

      • It seems like everyone is labeling BYU as a toss up. This surprises me. I think that one is a lock.

    32. We have plenty of talent yet Kelly will keep us under 10 wins unless he controls that ego.

      But my Irish heart dreams that we go up to MSU and win; then come home and beat Mich and rise to maybe #7 in the polls, then roll undefeated into the OK game for a #1 vs #2 matchup. That would be fun. We win of course (remember, a dream) and rise to #1. Then we roll along to SoCal for another #1 (ND) vs #2 bout. We win and face ‘bama for all the marbles in a final #1 (ND) vs #2 bowl finale like the great days we grew up with….and we win! A season for the ages–beating all the ol rivals. Ahhhhh. Don’t wake me up yet please.

    33. ND has not had a good team since Holtz departed. Academics too tough, weather too cold,
      sub standard coaching, not enough goodies for athletes ( money, cars, etc ). This year will not be any different. I can hardly stand to turn on the game on Saturdays no matter how weak the opponent, but I still love ND.

    34. Gentleman, we can all bleed Blue and Gold, but get real. ND hasn’t had the speed at the skill positions or on the defensive edge in over 20 years. Teams like USC and Oklahoma will exploit this. We’d be sub .500 in the SEC. Don’t blame Kelly. He’s overachieving. Until they can play a vertical game to go with the ground attack, and catch somebody, anybody, from behind, we’re doomed to “better than average”.

    35. Crude Rude says:

      ND was 8-5 last year. Here are three HUGE things that could have turned that record the other way………ND should have been 10-3 last year. Should have beaten USF, Michigan, and Florida St.

      #1 Turnovers….turnovers….turnovers
      I believe with a mobile QB there will be more yards picked up (by running) than throwing the ball to the wrong person, throwing it out of bounds, or a sack. ND should have beaten USF, and Michigan for sure (maybe USC). The big problem with those two-three losses was TURNOVERS!! Don’t get me wrong, there were a lot of other things that went wrong, but turn overs was 80% of our losses.

      #2 Scoring in the red zone!!!!
      I can’t count how many time ND had an opportunity to score inside the red zone. I know two red zones were sent back for TD’s (USF & USC). That was a turning point for ND when SC scored that 99 yard TD.

      #3 Letting the opposing team back in the game.
      Florida St. and Michigan come to mind. ND needs to conrol the second half of the ball game. I think they play to conservative in the second half.

      ND’s QB will be Everett Golson this 2012 season. Everett has an excellent arm, quick feet, oh…and he can RUN with the ball!!! Rees was not a runner, which he had three options if the reciever wasn’t open…INT, throw out of bounds, or get sacked. Don’t get me wrong….Golson will make his share of mistakes. I also think he will have way less mistakes (INT) than Rees.
      Kelly needs that mobile QB which I think it is Golson.

      Record – 9-3 or 10-2 ………losses – USC or OKlahoma or both, and MSU

      • Jim Prisby says:

        I’m sorry but I have a tough time uderstanding the love for MSU. Didn’t we hammer them last year? We matched up well against them and now their offense is one dimensional with a new QB and WR’s. They have a great defense but I think O will be clicking by then and we’ll score enough to win. I just don’t see them running well against our front seven with an inexperenced QB unable to beat us deep. I trust Diaco on this one.

    36. irishhawk50 says:

      I see 8-4 as a decent season considering the schedule. Of course hoping for better, but trying to be realistic. Lou Holtz always said the biggest improvement was between game 1 and 2.

      The trip to Ireland troubles me. In my past life I traveled extensively to Europe and those overnight flights where you arrive in the daylight after basically missing a night’s sleep were terrible. I would have urged ND to leave in the morning and arrive in the night local time, eat, go to sleep early and get up early the next morning and start up. I am also worried about the late start for the Purdue game. On your return you tend to get up early and tire earlier for a few days. A 1:30 start would have been advisable and, oh, I also have a trick play that I think would work! Go Irish!

    37. BradChicago says:

      I think it is entirely possible to be better this year than last. Didn’t we lose two years running to Michigan on a last second play? Didn’t spank Miami two years ago and the rebuilding talk was just beginning for them? Michigan State and Stanford are looking for starting quarterbacks too?

      I think 9-3 are possible. Look I’m not running Vegas with this; but other teams have not beat us so much as edged us out. I get it. A loss is a loss; however, one turnover less or one more from the defense. Maybe one more electric play that flips the field or inspires the team. One less blown coverage. Who knows?

      The loss of the cornerbacks is the biggest problem. We didn’t get stellar play at QB so is it impossible to say either guy could do better? Could a d-line with one more year of experience keep some of the big plays down the field from happening by harassing the QBs early and often? Could they help hide the otherwise inexperienced secondary? As for the wideouts I expect Floyd’s yards can be soaked up in many different ways. He will be missed but as long as ND spreads the ball around enough to keep teams from doubling Eifert the moment he gets off the bus I don’t think overall offensive numbers will drop. Increased efficiency in the red zone can more than make up for his absence. I remember at least 2 fumbles on the one yard line that could better the offensive output of last year.

      Of course I say all this and we are after all talking about a probability poll not a possibility poll. I guess that may look a lot different. Cheers. Go Irish!