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  • The 11th NDNation Probability Poll (we’re old)

    by SEE

    The 11th NDNation Probability Poll is underway. In theory, the probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just “ND is favored over X!” We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. In 2015, the optimists won out (and this was before the big injuries.) Fans expected 8.3 wins overall and the optimists expected 10.4 wins. In 2016, that year gave fans false hope. Fans expected 8.9 wins last year and they got… a stinker.

    Without further ado, the 2017 survey:

    21 Responses to “The 11th NDNation Probability Poll (we’re old)”

    1. SMA,P

    2. manorroof says:

      Go Irish

    3. John O Kindt says:

      I just want to see them fire off the line and play like they mean it.

    4. nervous for year

    5. Mike reed says:

      Pretty optimistic, notwithstanding well-developed gag reflex.

    6. Patrick Neary says:

      I have four likely wins (BC, M-Ohio, Wake, Navy) and two certain losses (USC, Stanford). The rest are toss-ups. Assuming splits in tossups results is 7-5, with outliers of 4-8 and 10-2. Since the tossups are 2 home and 4 road, weight goes to 6-6.

    7. irishhawk50 says:

      I think a minimum of 7 wins which I don’t even know would keep Kelly’s job. I see the biggest problem with USC (home), then maybe Stanford (away), Georgia (home) and Miami (away). I can’t see any more than 9 wins with all the turnover in staff. Hopefully I’m wrong and they run the table!

      I read the rumor about alternate uniforms, hopefully, its wrong, but I think they should break out the “plain” green uniforms early for Georgia for a mental boost, especially if they struggle against Temple.

    8. irishhawk50 says:

      I know, I know ……..we lost with green the last (and only) time we met Georgia. Time for revenge!

    9. These days I don’t think you can ever consider BC and Navy more than a toss up

    10. Bob Brady says:

      SEE, if you have the time, could you tell us what ND’s record is against first-time opponents at ND Stadium since Lou Holtz departed? My guess is that it’s less than impressive, and all the money poured into the Crossroads project won’t help.

    11. Uh – where is the Navy game?? Miami, FL? Stanford?

    12. Ted Kazmar says:

      I have ND going 5-7 this year, winning 4 out of their first 5 and losing 6 out of their last 7. If they can beat North Carolina and Navy then they would be 7-5. I think Swarbrick has to go. We need someone who will either contract for neutral officials or have ND join a conference. A new coach will not stop the downhill trend.

    13. With a very weakened defensive line, I doubt the Irish do very well this year.

    14. As always, the problem isn’t necessarily the games against teams that are really good (Georgia, USC, Stanford). A good, competent team on both sides of the ball could steal one of those games, win the rest, and finish 10-2, and fans would be happy, and ND football would be fun to watch.

      The real problem for ND is that they will play nail-biter, last-minute games against teams that are NOT very good (on paper), and they’ll finish 2-2 or something against MSU, Miami, North Carolina, and NC State. And heck, they’ll probably lay a turd against some bad team (like Navy) as well. There is plenty of precedent.

      In short: They don’t even meet their own standards for competence, so every game will be an adventure. The problem isn’t ND’s schedule. ND creates its own problems. 7-5.

    15. I see ND going 7-5 at worst and 9-3 at best. If they are hit with a rash of key injuries then it could be 6-6.

      8-4 seems like the most likely record and it seems that along with a second tier bowl, that’s the new gold standard at ND which is most disappointing. The Kelly era is starting to get stale and marked by mediocrity and excuses.

    16. If there is one thing Kelly has proven, it’s he can lose to anyone, anywhere. Hard to put greater than 70% on any game anymore. This is essentially a lake duck season and the least anticipated ND season I can remember.

    17. RickieG says:

      So tnis could be BK’s last year. Must win 9 and bowl game.

    18. RickieG says:

      last year of the Brian Kelly era.

    19. I live next to a die hard Bama fan.Hes a good neighbor.I pray every day for Irish football to return to prominence.I believe that is the only way up.Support the team and pray for recruiting and leadership.Go Irish.

    20. Same head coach who, with 1 exception, can’t get beyond 8 wins, now has lower rated recruits.

      Traditions being dumbed down, glitzy and superficial changes don’t add substance.

      My fan poll aggregated to 6.7 wins, but I am usually a bit on the optimistic side.

      Until they get rid of BK, I don’t see a change in fortunes. ND is not serious about football right now.

      Up until last year, I always watched every game. I don’t bother anymore, and I don’t miss it.