It is evident in the UK data, but not in the Florida data

It is evident in the UK data, but not in the Florida data
by Father Nieuwland (2021-08-02 14:56:24)

In reply to: I certainly expect (hope) that this will work with deaths posted by ufl

I assume that is a factor of vaccination rates and ages (UK vaccination rate is 75%+ for all age groups 40 yrs +).

Repeating my post from last week:

UK heavily vaccinated as well. July cases peak hit 80% of the January surge peak (7 day average cases of 46,837 in June vs 59,417 in January).

However, deaths (still rising) seem to be on pace to be less than 10% of the January surge peak (deaths are still trending up, the 8 days after the July cases peak the 7 day average death number is 71 vs 1,121 average 8 days after the January cases peak).

Vaccines may not be able to eliminate positive tests. But they do seem to be effective at minimizing hospitalizations and deaths among the vulnerable.

The majority of the vulnerable are easily identified by age. Protecting the vulnerable from hospitalization and death is an achievable goal and can be accomplished by vaccinating the vulnerable.

Also evident in the NL data

Looks like hospitalizations are peaking now. Cases are falling almost as quickly as they rose.

The Dutch recently caught up to the UK in the vaccination program.

Click here for link at https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-o

I expect a smart quant guy will probably construct a formula

based on the state's vaccinated/unvaccinated demographics for expected hospitalizations and deaths when the delta variant surge hits a state to help state hospital systems plan.

You'll need to account for vax distribution as well

For example, Israel is continuing to struggle with delta. My guess is that the vaxxed/unvaxxed communities don't mix all that much due to religious differences, while in the NL and other parts of Europe (Portugal is showing a similar pattern) the headline vaxxed number is more realistic for the population as a whole.

My sense is that the US is more like Israel in that some of the unvaxxed communities are isolated enclaves by choice.

Where may one find U.K. hospitalization data over time? *

. (link)

Click here for link at https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

Thanks *