I expect a smart quant guy will probably construct a formula
by Father Nieuwland (2021-08-02 15:42:03)
Edited on 2021-08-02 15:47:46

In reply to: Also evident in the NL data  posted by ndhouston

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based on the state's vaccinated/unvaccinated demographics for expected hospitalizations and deaths when the delta variant surge hits a state to help state hospital systems plan.

You'll need to account for vax distribution as well
by ndhouston  (2021-08-02 15:49:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

For example, Israel is continuing to struggle with delta. My guess is that the vaxxed/unvaxxed communities don't mix all that much due to religious differences, while in the NL and other parts of Europe (Portugal is showing a similar pattern) the headline vaxxed number is more realistic for the population as a whole.

My sense is that the US is more like Israel in that some of the unvaxxed communities are isolated enclaves by choice.