Fair or not, it's how single plays affect win probability

Fair or not, it's how single plays affect win probability
by harmonica (2019-01-14 08:42:26)

In reply to: Alshon Jeffery, Cody Parkey posted by IndianaLee

Parkey's missed field goal brought the Bears' win probability from ~85% to 0%. The Eagles' win probability before the Jeffery drop was probably something like 50%.

A missed field goal in the first half technically has the same impact to the score, but only affects win probability by a few percentage points.

Replies:

Per ESPN, Saints had a 71.7% win probability before the INT - ShermanOaksND 2019-01-14 12:59:48
- They might need to hire Chuck to run some numbers for them. - harmonica 2019-01-14 14:49:20
Nick Foles was outright bad - D8NDomer 2019-01-14 09:59:16
- Didn't he throw to Tate on the 1st Eagles play on offense? * - G.K.Chesterton 2019-01-14 13:34:01
  - Yeah, & maybe the second but - D8NDomer 2019-01-14 15:18:28
    - Tate was targeted five times and had two recs for 18 yards. (link) - G.K.Chesterton 2019-01-14 16:46:41
- He was good early - Groundhog 2019-01-14 13:17:50
- One play that changed the game - Cliff Claven 2019-01-14 10:16:05
  - The play that changed the game - osbournecox 2019-01-15 07:52:41
Even putting that aside, the change in expected point value - tdiddy07 2019-01-14 09:26:02