good assumption to make given the results that have been seen so far. New York is going to begin a study next week that will largely confirm whether or not an existing malaria drug combined with a z-pack will cure people that are infected.
Studies done in France showed a 100% cure rate within 6 days. Stop and ponder that for a moment...
NY is going to do what France did. If it works with any success rate at all -- like 20% or higher -- it is going to dramatically change everything about the current situation.
1) The death rate is going to drop dramatically -- to way below 1%.
2) The virus will have 6 days to spread v 14 days per person. That alone will dramatically change the curve
3) The drug also works just like it does for Malaria -- it prevents those using it from getting infected. It is a bridge to a vaccine. It will be used heavily by healthcare professionals -- already in trials -- to block them from getting it
Anyway -- you get the idea. It's March. There is no way in hell within the US that the virus isn't going to be way down on the other side of the curve by then. The issue in the US in September is going to be where we are on the economic recovery -- not where we are on the virus itself.
There also is good reason to believe the virus is going to spread far less in humidity -- which the South is already beginning to have -- and the rest of the US is going to have by May. Why? Because the droplets that people infected with the virus spew out into the air now travel 6' and then drop. In high humidity they combine with the moisture in the air to drop after about 1' -- and last less time on the surfaces they hit. That also will drastically reduce the spread -- buying time to cleanup the mess and prepare for the winter wave, where more treatments will exist and hospitals will also be fully prepared.
the virus rebound effect will be on the docket this fall after a tentative all-clear given in May/June.
Asking; not arguing, the humidity aspect only affects outside. It would not help at the grocery store etc, correct?
the water coming out of the body to form larger droplets that then fall to the ground faster combined with more overall water diluting the virus more on surfaces.
For me, it was the first time I heard a really good reason why warmer weather affects the spread of viruses / causes seasonal periods.
So -- it could be that places are explicitly instructed to not use air conditioning or to set it at 85 or some such value to purposely let more humidity exist inside.
Above is also why they talked yesterday during the presidential conference that the expect a 2nd wave in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3 that's the direct result of the current isolation methods and warmer weather.
(pre-emptive shut up, Andy, I know what you think)
I guess we'll see. I can't definitively prove anything will or won't happen, but this is definitely the the first time I've spent a couple extra bucks in ticket insurance.
one, I would imagine that a large majority of at-risk people are going to be under some kind of shelter in place for a long time.
two, I believe that there will be substantial pressure to "return to normal" much sooner than September.
Given one and two above, I would be surprised if we didn't have football in the fall. Would there be restrictions? Sure. Maybe even some games without crowds, I suppose.
Very uplifting