5-star players drafted: 63%
4-star players drafted: 22%
3-star players drafted: 7%
irishrock analyzed the first two rounds of the 2020 draft to find out the high school ranking of the players.
Is your data the percentage of each * ranking who get drafted (and is it over all 7 rounds)? This would be a different data point.
They posted some data on the recruits that signed with FBS schools from 2010-2016.
- in that time period, a total pool of 11,376 signees were either 3, 4 or 5 star recruits, based on 247 Composite player rankings:
3 stars: 9,125 (80% of signed players)
4 stars: 2,036 (18% of signed players)
5 stars: 215 (2% of signed players)
- from that pool, the following were drafted (all 7 rounds):
3 stars: 657 (7% success rate), with an average draft round of 4.2
4 stars: 454 (22% success rate), with an average draft round of 3.8
5 stars: 135 (63% success rate), with an average draft round of 2.7
- so, yes, it is a different data point.
- irishrock's breakdown of 2020 1st & 2nd round draft selections tells the same story.
3 stars represent 34% of 1st round draft selections, but from 80% of the "market."
4 stars represent 47% of 1st round draft selections, from only 18% of the "market."
5 starts represent 19% of 1st round draft selections, from only 2% of the "market."
Water is wet.
i.e. which group or groups have the greatest potential for a 3 star to be drafted and/or for a 5 star to fizzle?
I'm guessing OL is the biggest one, as they're the hardest to truly evaluate in high school. Anything else?
It may be that LB performance is a function of scheme, and less about athleticism.
have been 3-stars coming out of high school:
Aaron Rodgers - JC
Carson Wentz - ND St
Ben Rothleisberger - Miami (OH)
Jimmy Garoppolo - E. Illinois
Josh Allen - Wyoming
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Harvard
Daniel Jones - Duke
Baker Mayfield - walk-on at Texas? was it
Don't know about Russell Wilson at NC State. Mahomes was a three star along with Dalton, Burrow, Trubisky, Bradford, Foles, and Bortles.
Just an awful lot of three stars and below for the most important position in sports. Also, perusing the 5-stars at the "Pro-style" QB position it's shocking how few pan out.
The 5 star pro style QBs often struggle in college because they are asked to run a more spread and mobile style of offense than they would be asked to run in the NFL. They washout in college as a result.
Oddly, some of the lower ranked pro style QBs end up making it better in college because they play at lower tier schools and end up being a big fish in a small pond and get noticed.
It is just a theory of mine. I could be full of shit -- like I am on most other things.
Another theory is a lot of the highest ranked QBs get stacked up at the same colleges, so only a fraction of them start and others have to transfer and that often blows up the flow of their college carrer.
HS quarterbacks are often throwing to receivers open by 3 steps. Tighter windows, closing speed of the defensive backs, and more sophisticated defenses may trump raw talent.
Typically college QBs face a better rush, which also forces quicker decision making
The ability to read defenses both before and after snap is key to later success, but less so in HS.
QBs who are 5* in HS have raw physical talent and success against lesser opposition.
Perusing the starters in the NFL there are an awful lot of QB’s from colleges outside the whose who of college football.
The national hit rate is 7% on 3 stars being drafted.
In the same time period (2010-2016 recruits), ND hit on 7% as well. 4 out of 58. One was an OL (Nick Martin). So right at national average.
Wisconsin hit on a whopping 17%.
In the same time period, Clemson had approximately a 14% hit rate (Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley, Isaiah Simmons the big names).
So one of the gaps between ND and Clemson appears to be selection and/or development of 3 stars.