I'm surprised that performance-based contracts haven't

become more popular. Most coaches have bonuses in for meeting certain performance measures but they're paltry and insignificant compared to base pay.

For schools that don't have a completely toxic environment, I think I'd spell out some specific conditions that would allow (but not require) firing for-cause, such as:
-Winning below X number of games/conference games
-Losing X number of games/conference games by more than Y points
-Having a finding/punishment that results in the loss of scholarships, bowl eligibility, or vacation of wins.

Then in terms of payment, I'd go with a lower base-pay, and meaningful performance-based pay. I lay out a framework below, specific amounts or conditions could vary (e.g., some teams might value end of season totals, or final CFP ranking ranges, etc...), but you get the basic idea:

Base pay? $500K

Then, I'd offer bonuses for the important things:
-$750K for win over primary rival
-$500K for win over the next two most important games of the season (decided before the season)
-$250K for win over the next five teams (decided before the season)
-$100K for win over any remaining non-buy games
-$1 for win over any buy games
-Win a non-playoff bowl game over a top 10 team: $1M
-Win a non-playoff bowl game over a top 20 team: $500K
-Make the playoff (current 4-team version)? $2M
-Win a playoff game? $3M
-Win a championship? $6M

You would probably want some sort of recruiting & player retention payments to incentivize ongoing roster maintenance even after a coach may have decided he's moving on, so again, these amounts would need to vary somewhat.

These things stack. Win the whole thing, you're looking at $15M. I don't think any school should be concerned about paying $15M for each nat'l championship year. That's probably still a bargain. The real concern is paying $10M for Texas A&M or MSU's season this year.

Some examples of this particular framework would have played out in past seasons:
BK 2016 $1,000,002.
BK 2017 $2.95M
BK 2018 $5.3M
MF 2022 $2.2M + potential bowl game of up to $1M