In reply to: A useless but somewhat interesting counterfactual is... posted by bizdomer09
first.
But hey, we all know the results now so it's clear what should have been done all along.
And San Fran had a flawed plan and even worse it was not communicated to the players many of who admittedly had no idea what the rules were and what the plan would be. The organization and this staff look like idiots particularly after the player quotes. The Super Bowl was on the line. The entire scenario is embarrassing for San Francisco. This is a team that knows they’ll be in the playoffs by Thanksgiving and knows they will have a chance to win the Super Bowl. For them to not be adequately prepared for this is unbelievable.
Giving the opponent the extra down by going second particularly that QB is egregiously bad. “We wanted to get the ball 3rd”. That is laughable. And if that is your thinking then why are you even kicking the field goal. Go for it on 4th and goal then.
about 45-50 yards to get into FG range without having that benefit of knowing they were going for it every fourth down. So in that scenario there would have been a very real chance to get to that third overtime possession that you keep discounting the possibility of.
it makes almost no difference, and the receiving team actually has the advantage.
And you didn't answer my question--they were down 3/4 of their starting secondary at that time. Should we completely ignore game situation?
Analytic bullshit. Backseat driving. Second guessing.
A gassed defense gets a series off even a nice drive in OT? Will it make that much difference? What if SF goes 3 and out? I mean come on. Your offense had struggled of late in the game. Why is it any better to put them out there? I’d rather give them the chance to know exactly what they need and how many downs they have to do it. And once again you keep discounting that Shanahan admitted this decision was made before he had injuries and before he saw game flow. So to him it didn’t matter so why should I take it into account?
which was likely about 15-20 minutes given commercials, clock stoppages, etc. would indicate that yes, they were more rested. Further evidence would be that they all came back to play.
The offense scored 10 points in the fourth quarter on several long drives. They weren't "struggling" at that point. You're just making things up now to try and support hindsight.
They were 3/12 on 3rd down. I think they had 5 possessions in the 2nd half if you don’t count the last 20 seconds. 3 of those possessions were immediate 3 and outs in which they had -1,-1, and 0 yards.. One was a 75 yard drive and one was a 7 play 40 yard drive for a FG. They had about 120 yards in the second half before overtime. They had one long drive not several. I think it’s you who are misremembering or making things up.
the last two drives were the immediate drives before overtime. 115 yards in the last 2 possessions (late in the game, per your initial comment) and 10 points. I think that's pretty good. You seem to infer that is struggling "late in the game."
I guess you just have higher expectations of the offense than me if you think 115 yards in two possessions prior to that point is struggling.
But I'm sure that you feel Reid would have gone for it on 4th and very long in field goal range in overtime, right? Of course, we'll never know because the defense and the defensive calls stunk.
And on multiple 3rd downs weren’t prepared for what everyone in the world knew would be all out pressure from Spagnola. And they only scored 9 points btw. I haven’t heard a single analysis by anyone of notoriety that didn’t call taking the ball a mistake at a minimum. Most scorched him. So ya, you’re in the overwhelming minority on this one pal.
That is not a correct statement.
Of the two units, it is not arguable as to which was stronger at that point. And assuming a td by a unit that had scored one (off of a sudden change, mind you) isn't a given if the defense is rested.
You guys are using the benefit of hindsight, and I note that you have never answered as to your opinion of what Reid would have done 4th and 15 from field goal range. If your theory would hold, you'd have to assume that he would have gone for it. But, of course he wouldn't have; nobody sane would. He would have kicked and trusted his defense, and Kyle's theory would have been correct. But we won't know, because the defense didn't get a stop. It's the more poorly coached and prepared of the two units.
The defensive scheme and coaching and the offensive line pass protection coupled with turnovers, questionable clock managemtn and poor special teams led to the loss. It's as old an explanation as the game itself. Yes, that's on the head coach, and I expect significant improvement. Getting lost in the minutia of the overtime decision is sportz talk nonsense. It was a 50-50 shot, and to focus on that ignores the other problems, which are much, much, much more likely to have an impact on futures games and schedules.
You are assuming that SF would go on an extended drive the opening series to give this "gassed" defense a rest and then assuming again that whatever rest they got would be enough to hold the Chiefs to exactly the same production SF got out of their drive.
You're correct that the other things all certainly contributed to the loss, but the fact is they were tied at the end of regulation with a chance to win the game and he bungled the decision.
I also disagree with you slamming their defense as much as you are. They held KC to 19 points in regulation, forced 2 turnovers, and were put in an awful spot by the special teams misfortune. As you have noted they were banged up in the secondary and lost Greenlaw early and his replacement was absolutely torched in coverage. I can't hammer Wilkes too much, I thought the defense played well enough to win. The offense had ample opportunity to end the game with a Moody FG try and they failed to convert a first down. SF also got no help up front from the Bill Winovich led crew.
There were at least 3 holds on key plays for KC not called that were apparent. KC was called for holding the most times in the regular season yet managed to play a "clean" game in that regard. The D gets a pass from me. Shanahan and the offense lost the game for SF.
in field goal range question about Reid and whether he would have gone for it. I've posed that to quite a few people with no response to this point. I've heard several NFL analysts (including Brian Baldinger) say that they understand and at least partially agree with Kyle's thinking, and today John Lynch confirmed that the defense's late play (or lack thereof) went into the decision making process as well (I mean, of course it did; they were down 3 starting db's at the time). But hey, Mike Florio and Shannon Sharpe disagree (and probably other dumbfucks like Skip Bayless), and they shout louder than everyone else, so they must be right.
Nobody wants to answer that question because the hypothetical destroys the idea that Shanahan is a dumbass. As Kyle Jusczyk said today, "it's just another way to shit on Kyle." It's dumb, it's pointless, it's sportztalk bullshit.
They blew the game in a variety of ways, mostly OL performance and fumbles. If the defense had held them to a field goal attempt in OT, they would have had a huge advantage. If Mahomes had gotten the ball in a second possession, they would have been at a huge disadvantage. I can see both sides, and given the game circumstances I completely agree with the decision, whereas I completely disagree with other decisions.
You can put whatever spin you want on it about a tired defense it’s still stupid particularly since that played no part in the on field staff decision. None. John Lynch isn’t talking to anyone during the game. If he said that it’s nothing more than a foolish attempt to defend a dipshit decision by his coach. That will be the one and only time you ever see that mistake again in this spot.
The 4th and 15 question is totally irrelevant. Again you are trying to predict a scenario that is unknown. What is known is that no matter what both teams get a chance to possess the ball. All things equal you absolutely want to go second in this scenario. Making it even more egregious of an error is knowing the QB you are facing is the best in football and has an unheard of success rate of winning games on a final possession. Furthermore you know if they do score there’s about a 99% chance they will put the ball in his hands from the 2 to win the game rather than put their defense out there to try to keep you from getting into FG range.
the point is that on fourth down in field goal range, Reid would have gone for the kick. And assuming a make, the Niners would have got the ball in sudden death, next score wins.
Again, this is all nonsense sportztalk bullshit. The numbers have been run; it's basically a coin flip, and with a tired defense missing 4 starters (just from this game, 5 if you want to count Hufanga) that had given up 70 yards in less than 2 minutes just prior, it's not some idiotic or horrific call.
The defense has to do it's job at some point. In your world, they would have been better off kicking off and then just taking a knee while the Chiefs ran a play to let them score and then get the ball back to try and get a td and a 2 point conversion. Meanwhile, they had gone through the entire game and the defense (when it wasn't exhausted) had held them to 4 field goals.
So, in other words, a question about holding them to another field goal (after they'd already forced 4) isn't irrelevant. It's actually on point. Now, for your next task, stop dealing in hindsight.