that Brian Kelly is basically HCFL (Head Coach For Life) and are getting the hell out of Dodge before Kelly pulls them down with him.

Both Elko and Hiestand reportedly are looking at substantial raises from what I have read.

Kelly mentioned before the bowl game. I’m not sure it’s failure to pay “reasonable” wages that’s the problem.

After next season, that will be three and time for ND to extend or signal that he's year-to-year (at best), which no big-time program can afford to do.
If I had to guess, I'd say that the tea leaves are lining up that an extension won't be forthcoming a year from now, and that is playing some role in the recent movement. PERHAPS that was the "deal" that Sally struck with the BOT in exchange for not forcing him to fire Kelly after last year.

For recruiting purposes, I suspect they would always want to have at least 4 more contract years in place. So after next year, I think they would either extend him to at least 2022 or agree to part ways. How well the 2018 season goes could determine what the buy-out looks like.

For example (and I'm just brainstorming at this point), if they have a mediocre 8-4 season in 2018 but decide to retain him maybe they would extend his contract to 2022 for window dressing purposes without actually increasing his buy-out such that if they fire him after 2019 they would only need to pay his contract through 2021.

could be that ME and HH recognize that and are, in part, choosing to get out while the getting is good.

#2 could make some sense even if these assistants have a very high opinion of Kelly, just because he's creeping towards that 10 or 11 year wall where even the best ND coaches have historically burned out. With that in mind, maybe this is a good offseason for an assistant to "sell high" after a season in which the coaching staff got a lot of praise.

From reading some of the info on this board in the last few days, it's been speculated that A&M came back with a ridiculous 2nd offer for Elko after ND matched the first one. And that returning to the NFL may have always been in Hiestand's plans, partly motivated by the ability to get an NFL pension (I don't know exactly how that works, I'm just repeating what another poster speculated). If there is merit to both of those theories, then maybe it's just "shit happens" with no alarming common theme.

If Kelly had a better track record of consistency during his 8 years, then there'd be more of a "ho hum" attitude towards staff turnover.

Kelly has only 1-3 years left under any scenario that I can think of.

i truly believe Kelly will be gone next month. I see it in his eyes. I feel it my heart. The end is not near. The end is here !

Harry going back to the pros (and from South Bend to Chicago) does not require much hand wringing or couch analysis.

Bilko came back twice for a raise so you can understanding ND telling him to sleep with the Aggies.

(Do NFL coaches have a pension plan? Did not find a quick answer on Goggle. Assistants probably got screwed.)

Brian Kelly is not long for Notre Dame and might very well himself check out sooner than later.

While (1) may seem "sudden," so too is the increase in what the market is paying top assistants. I doubt Kelly's been given a firm "no," but there easily could be hemming and hawing due to pure sticker shock.

...for several reasons.

1. 10 years as HC at ND loads a lot of stress on the occupant of that position; without rehashing the length of tenure for previous coaches, I just don't think you're going to see true long-term tenures in that position, unless we deflate to club status. The stress leads to burnout and genuine physical health issues, requiring resignation. Among some of the longer-tenured HCs, Leahy was worn out and done; Ara was worn out and done (though he reveived and pushed on in other directions); Lou tried to go on, but not for long; he was done, and then became a public speaker. I'd give resignation for mental and physical health reasons at least 75% probability in BK's case in the next 2 years.

2. The seemingly mysterious change of offensive direction starting with the 2nd half of Wake Forest and continuing with the weak results at Miami and Stanford. Was this due to BK falling off the wagon and taking over more of the offensive and/or schemes? I'd give this at least a 50% likelihood.

3. The PTB observed #2, above, and are headed in the direction of pulling the plug. I'd give this maybe 33% probability.

Your 1) doesn't make sense, as I'm sure you intended by posing this opposition; I suppose there might some third/fourth/etc. reasons, such as, a few assistants were presented with offers they couldn't refuse.

The question whose answer holds the key to the 2017 season and could go a very very long way to resolve a lot of fanbase disquiet.

What happened at halftime of Wake Forest?

Adams was slowed. Wimbush appeared to lose all confidence including showing indecisiveness running the ball. Our defense tackled poorly down the stretch at times. They did not swarm to the ball as well like earlier in the year. Why I’m not sure.

Wake was the first team that really spread us out and had some athletes that could make plays. It seemed to shake our defensive confidence for whatever reason.

Offensively I do not think Kelly began calling plays but what I do think happened was a combination of a couple of mindsets. Led by Kelly and probably with collective agreement even if reluctantly by others, the staff felt to win at Miami and at Stanford as well as possible playoff games, they had to improve the passing game. Whether that opinion by the staff was true or not we will never know but it’s clear to me they came into that Wake game looking to get some passing reps in during a game situation. Clearly the plan went sideways.

On Monday night, Saban knew he was going to have to throw to win that game probably very early in it if not before it even started. I think this was Kelly and the staff’s mindset right or wrong for the home stretch and possible playoff. I do not necessarily disagree with that ideology but I believe they went about it the wrong way. There is no doubt even with our OL there would come a point where we would have to make plays in the passing game to win a big game. The problem is they tried to do that by making our QB run pass plays he isn’t able to execute. There are other ways we could have made plays through the air besides putting him in the gun and trying to make him Aaron Rodgers. That’s the issue IMHO.

we're in a lot of trouble when we actually play, you know, teams with decent talent.

Big issue to me was that we were too easy to scout and trap. There might have been some conditioning issues, but basically football is a copycat sport and teams will study film and tendencies all day long and as soon as something doesn't work (or vice versa) they'll attack it.

I don't know if it was the talent of Wake or the scheme we werent prepared for but they exploited us by spreading the field in both the run and pass game.

As ive stated before, we need to keep upgrading talent on defense. We get a guy here and there that is elite but we never seem to have a handful of them at once and we certainly never have it at all 3 levels of the defense at once.

can’t make anymore.

I think Kelly looked passive and almost disengaged the first half of the season, but when it was obvious the team had begun playing at a high level he took over. Maybe or maybe not individual play calling, but certainly the fundamental identity of the offense and what the scheme was going to be.

There is no reason we shouldn’t have beaten Stanford comfortably, but we were a different team by then, or I should say we had become the end of season kind of team that is the norm under Kelly.

...It seemed like the playcalling had turned to getting passing reps for Wimbush, and people around us were commenting to similar effect.

The man turns 60 this year. This is likely his last best chance at an NFL gig. It's just up the road, with a premier (though recently dysfunctional) organization. It means he won't have to spend countless hours recruiting over the next few years. And it arises as his two best players also head to the NFL (with the chance to draft either at #8). I don't know why he'd say "no" to that, even if ND matched, or Kelly was something other than an underachieving asshole.

With that said, it does not appear that Kelly's program and the Kelly the boss are particularly hard to leave.

Players and assistants don't seem to linger when another opportunity calls.

And, in many cases, I think that's because they realize Kelly is NOT going anywhere; that their and the team's ceilings under him have been reached, and the only way to better themselves is elsewhere.

They're getting out while the getting is good, but I'll believe that Kelly's time at Notre Dame is limited only when there is a press conference announcing the same -- or one announcing the end of Swarbrick's tenure -- and not a moment before. The better assistants don't want the stench of Kelly's next losing season on their resumes.

First, it's the nature of the business.
Second, I bet Kelly's a bit of an asshole, my way or the Skyway.
Third, ND opens opportunities for coaches.
Fourth, not every assistant hired has been a complete boob, so many have good options for advancement.
Last, it is good to learn from others (akin to the nature of the business).

Coaches have lives, families, loyalties, opportunities, worries, you name it. There are myriad reasons for coaching turnover. Change is the one truth in life. How a HC deals with change is one of the clear indicators of that coach's ability.

and - there might be a little less elasticity in the $$$ to do so.

heck - i wouldn't doubt that you could probably charge GAs to work for Saban because they know what they'd be worth after that stint vs the market.

that said - i agree with my dorsal finned friend above...

I suspect that even if the end is near, they don't want to tarnish their resumes by being part of another potential 4-8 under Kelly. With the message being trumpeted by ND of 10-3 being a great effort, it's time to get out while the tide is high before the next low tide inevitably returns.

The 10-3 and the Joe Moore award is just what HH needed to get out of dodge. Ditto a good showing on D for Elko. Kelly is year to year from here on out. Recruiting should be interesting this season.

I'm wondering if there is much more to what happened in November than we all really know. Within a 19 day stretch we went from being in the playoffs with a legitimate Heisman contender to being completely out of both pictures.

If the staff thought that our wounds were largely self-inflicted (vs due to injury) they might have finally had enough knowing that things aren't going to change.

Kelly isn't going anywhere and they can't deal with another squandering of talent and hard work like 2017.

And I wonder if the first call that started the process resulting in this new departure came from Chicago or from South Bend.

best place to watch a sinking ship is from another boat

but we've been watching the monkey f*cking a football circus for more than two decades, now

so - whatever...

We don't know exactly when but the assistants probably have a good idea.

Maybe it's after this year or next. He won't be coaching an 11th year at Notre Dame. I wish he hadn't coached an 8th.

I think Kelly will be here as long as he wants to be. No one else wants to hire him so there's no incentive to leave. I do believe that we have moved from purgatory, where hope exists because you know you'll eventually get out, to the fifth circle of hell.

I fully expect to look up one day very soon and realize that Kelly has coached more games at ND than any other coach in our history. That day isn't too far away.

They are going to go wherever they think the situation is most advantageous to themselves and their career. The marketplace sees the 2017 staff as a group that turned around a terrible 2016 team and won 10 games. Their market value is never going to be higher. That's especially true if Notre Dame reverts to its Kelly-era mean (or below it) next season.

That's why it always comes down to the head coach. The idea that "with the right staff coach XYZ can be good" ignores the fact that it is the head coach, and only the head coach, who can bring stability to a program.

The head coach needs to build the program to the point where being an assistant there is the pinnacle of success. Where assistants are confident that if they are a part of the staff they will share in the program's success. Outside of personality conflicts or underperformance, position coach's only motivation to leave is to get a coordinator job. Coordinators only motivation to leave is to be a head coach. The head coach still has staff turnover, but it is he, not the assistants, who make the team.

Notre Dame and Brian Kelly aren't there. When you have to pray for the perfect set of assistant coaches to fall in your lap, you have the wrong guy steering the ship.

In addition, I think coaches might feel held back by Kelly's weaknesses. How can they flourish while he calls the shots vis-a-vis game plan and in-game decisionmaking?

To be honest, I don't think the reasoning is all that different for lots of very talented players who choose to finish their eligibility elsewhere.

I posted on this below that I think this is a clear sign that the top assistants at ND know the end is near for Kelly and are jumping off the sinking ship before they have limited options.

I would be shocked if Kelly has more than 1 more year left in him given these moves that portend the end is near.

Of course I've been wrong on Kelly's longevity before ---so watch the asshole last another 3-4 more years.....

Any other industry/institution, you have an underperforming boss and top performers continue to leave.... what would happen at a Fortune 500 company?

rather than paint houses. They probably figured they were done with that when they finished that summer job after junior year of college.

If the rumor about him being the top-paid OL coach in the NFL is true, I can see why ND didn't match.

Especially, given that I think Elko is being overpaid by Texas A&M.