But you can only make decisions based on what you know today, taking into account potential for the unknowns. If Coney/Tillery talked to the same scouts who are writing these articles about them, they'd get feedback that if they continue with their trajectory they could move from 3rd to 1st round. At that point, I think the math speaks for itself (if the last pick in the first round in 2018 invested all his bonus, he would have about $10 million more than the first pick of the 2017 3rd round in 2050 doing the same thing using your compound interest formula, even without that extra year. And that's just the guaranteed bonus). But there's no guarantees either way, I agree with that.