The improbability of that is astounding.

It would be highly improbably that ND's recruits are generally overrated because of ND's offer, and other programs with bigger brand names right now (Alabama or Ohio State) are not overrated because of their offers. Both programs generally outperform their recruiting rankings.

It would be even more improbable that ND always lands the highest ranking players who aren't actually that good, and everyone else who offers those players doesn't have those players commit to their programs AND the guys who do commit actually are as good as their rankings.

Wimbush had Alabama and Ohio State offers. Mack (nee Jones) had USC, Auburn, Georgia offers.

In no world are ND's recruits "almost always overrated by the services." Like any program, the rankings are inexact and sometimes less heralded players outperform the more heralded ones. But by and large the best players that develop the best tend to be the higher ranked ones.

And ND is developing NFL talent at about the same pace as their recruiting rankings would suggest. What they aren't doing, however, is winning at that same pace with that talent. And at certain positions there have been consistent developmental failures linked to Kelly's control of quarterbacks and BVG's linebacker and safety play.

Mack had Scott Booker coaching him, maybe the biggest lightweight on Kelly's staff. In the past three years, ND had the worst TE development production it has had in over a decade. No one has looked like a pro since Koyack left. But Koyack and Eifert weren't overrated because of their ND offers. And Koyack was a little higher rated than Smythe and Mack with a little better list of offers. But ND also didn't have 5-star Rudolph during that stretch or Koyack. And the guys who outperformed that group was a wildly underrated Eifert, a wildly underrated Carlson. Even Niklas was ranked lower than Mack/Smyth with a worse offer list. Like Carlson and Eifert, Niklas wasn't overrated by the services.

Just like under Faust, ND isn't failing to develop successful players because their recruits are overrated. It's failing to develop players where there is poor coaching. And its recruiting ratings versus production (as measured by NFL grades and drafts) do not show any general disparity between how the services rank ND's recruits versus any other program.