Concerns post Pitt
by tricio (2018-10-16 20:14:25)

The overall performance against Pitt makes me uneasy about the final stretch. I am not worried about Navy (though, the history with them has not been without surprises), but the remaining 4 do give me pause.

Northwestern has shown it can be difficult - just ask MSU. Although it has struggled all year, FSU has sufficient talent (and incentive) to create problems as it did for Miami. Syracuse played Clemson very tough, narrowly lost to Pitt and also has the incentive of taking down ND - plus, that game is close to home for them which may mean sizeable fan support. Finally, USC seems to be improving and will have plenty of time to get ready (likewise, with lots of incentive to spoil the party after last year).

Looking at the inability to sustain any running game, Book's drop off in overall performance (sorry, the 70% completion number masks some serious issues), and that kickoff redux return to open the second half, I get a tad nervous. Tthe fact Book also took some hits, doesn't help calm me. Book may prove the Pitt game was only a bump in the road and return to the form of weeks 4-6, and all will end well. But,If he gets a concussion or other injury, I don't see BW getting the Irish to 12-0.

Some of my concerns are focused on the OLine which needs to get much better, especially at adjusting to unexpected tactics of opposing defenses (for which responsibility, perhaps unfortunately, lies with the coaching staff).

My other concerns center around the QB situation. First, which Book will be showing up down the stretch? The confident one of a couple of weeks ago, or the less steady one that played against Pitt? If he gets injured or does not revert to his earlier form, who will step in? There were reasons why Book replaced BW, and is not clear those reasons should not be expected to remain valid. And, since he has seen only a few minutes of action, Jurkovec would need to be the second coming of Montana to step in and take the team to the promised land.

ND has benefitted from a perfect storm of upsets wreaking havoc on the rankings. But, some tough sledding remains to get to the Final 4, and there is lots of work yet to do to take advantage of the situation.



If they fix the OL, nothing else matters. If they don't,
by KevinPS  (2018-10-17 15:16:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

nothing else matters. The rest of this is just blue smoke and mirrors.

I'm not optimistic that they'll fix what ails the OL (fundamentals like footwork, hand placement, etc.) because, if they could, the OL wouldn't need to be fixed in the first place.


3 concerns: game plans, QB coaching
by ram  (2018-10-17 14:09:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

and anything else Kelly tries to improve


Deuce backfield would makes defenses take a beat or two
by thethinman  (2018-10-17 14:06:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Not being able to key on a single back would also help the O line blocking assignments.


Mine is that in 4 games the OLine has played bad.
by pasteven  (2018-10-17 13:59:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Only 1 of those teams had a good D-Line.


Bad news....
by Hanratty5ND  (2018-10-17 14:31:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

The last 4 opponents all have pretty good DL's.

Most are better than what ND has already faced--save for Michigan.

All can make ND's silly OL look even sillier.

They had better get the OL issue solved real quick(fat chance) or they will not only be out of the playoffs--they will be looking at multiple losses.


My concerns are the same
by Cliff Claven  (2018-10-17 13:08:40)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

as they have been since Kelly arrived:
1. Soft O/Line play: there have been way to many occasions when we have been stopped on 3rd or 4th and short or the running game completely shut down by to many men in the box. It's painfully obvious that we never practice short yardage offense or the running game
2. Offense to dependent on the QB being perfect.
3. Grab bag play-calling
4. Kelly is the worst representative of ND in my lifetime. There to many off field issues to list
Cliffy


Same as it ever was in the last nine years. *
by The Flash  (2018-10-17 13:14:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


My biggest concern
by tf86  (2018-10-17 12:07:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Is that Narduzzi may have given another coach with more talent at his disposal a blueprint for how to beat us.


FSU and Syracuse
by Hanratty5ND  (2018-10-17 12:47:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Both have the defensive players/athletes in place to implement Narduzzi's approach.

They can both create havoc with their DL against our OL and both teams have CB's that can play tight man--especially Syracuse. I think FSU might be young at CB.

Both Clemson and Pitt showed the way to attack Syracuse's defense, albeit a little bit late: Pound Syracuse with the run game. They could not stop either Clemson or Pitt when it mattered.

But this is my biggest worry when we face Syracuse. What are the odds that Kelly will exploit their main weakness on D with a strong rushing attack?


I think its important to factor in the health of the OL
by Voisman  (2018-10-17 17:28:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

in any discussion of the running game. We dont see that in practice but clearly they were getting very little push this past saturday. Was it because of Pitts scheme, the relative health of the OL, Kelly's insanity, some combination of all three? My vote is that as the health of the OL goes, so does our running game.

Just my two cents.


The odds are infinitesimal
by The Flash  (2018-10-17 13:13:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

The question is not, "What are the odds that Kelly will exploit their main weakness on D with a strong rushing attack?"

The question essentially is, "What are the odds that Kelly will substantially transform himself and admit that his approach is ineffectual?" The odds are nil.


Books performance summary
by PHILLYJ  (2018-10-17 11:45:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Books has had three weeks of very good to good games. Kelly is now satisfied that he can now unload on Books for everything from missed assignments to the causes of the common cold. In other words, Kelly is now starting to creep into Books head. I anticipate Books will begin to look like every other QB Kelly has destroyed. As exhibits for my belief look at any game played by any other ND QB under Kelly. The man has a genius for destruction.


How many Books are there on the team? *
by golfjunkie17  (2018-10-17 12:15:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Tommy Ree agrees
by ThreeD  (2018-10-17 11:53:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

and wants his s back.


Books drop off in overall performance?
by goldhelmethead  (2018-10-17 11:15:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That's extremely overstated. He won a tough game.

No mention of our Defense?




Offensively we had a nice 3 game honeymoon with Book
by pobrien  (2018-10-17 10:44:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Pitt ended that.

I think we will lose at least 2 of the remaining regular season games. And barely get by in the others.

In typical Kelly fashion we get by early with deception but you can only trick teams so much. You have to have competence to win later when teams have so much film on you.

I expect the offense to continue its grinding halt. Defense will get tired and give up some big plays, miss tackles, etc.

And all that after Swarbrick and Kelly have been congratulating themselves in the press.


I agree we're losing 1 or 2 down the road, but
by VT2ND  (2018-10-17 11:43:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

to say that our offense will "continue with the grinding halt" is probably overstating things. Narduzzi is an excellent defensive coach, and he drew up an outstanding game plan, disguising coverages and drawing up blitzes from different points on the field. Without many starts under his belt, it's understandable that he had his troubles on Saturday.

I don't think we're going to play like that the rest of the season, but I do think we're going to get Kelly'd and lay at least one or two turds before the season ends.


Book literally is the NCAA leader in completion percentage.
by isaywhateveryo  (2018-10-17 11:23:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I'm not sure what more you want from him. He isn't the problem.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/755


I agree Book is not the problem. Kelly is *
by Pobrien  (2018-10-17 13:40:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Does a 1 loss ND make the playoff?
by ndmdchgo  (2018-10-16 22:13:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Would losing to Michigan in week 1 have looked better than losing to USC in November? Would an Ohio State team with a loss to Michigan get in over a 11-1 ND who beat Michigan?
Obviously no loss top 4 teams stay there. The one loss teams are where the controversy will lie.
11-1 seems doable. Running the table seems doubtful.


no...our only chance is 12-0. The schedule is soft. *
by discNDav  (2018-10-17 13:19:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


No.
by The Flash  (2018-10-17 13:17:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And rightfully so. We don't want to go to the playoffs and get humiliated if we will have lost to Navy, NW, FSU, Syracuse or USC.

Any of the other four teams in the top five right now would give Brian Kelly another embarrassing smackdown to the third five.


Impossible to tell right now
by tf86  (2018-10-17 12:03:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It will depend on what goes on across the country, together with the circumstances surrounding our loss.

I do agree with you on one point -- generally speaking, an early-season loss doesn't hurt nearly as much as a late-season loss. In that regard, a loss to Michigan would not have hurt as badly as a loss to USC likely would.


ND’s 3 biggest wins.
by Irpa  (2018-10-17 10:22:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Michigan was playing with a new QB and a new scheme for that QB. ND played one good half of football. Stanford is not very good this year and ND played them at home. They should be a 3 loss team right now. VA Tech was playing with a backup QB who went 0-12 in his prior season as a starter. This same team lost to Old Dominion. ND underwhelmed in almost every other game. There is Alabama undefeated and then there is ND undefeated.


In any universe Brian Kelly will never defeat Nick Saban. *
by The Flash  (2018-10-17 13:19:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


We should just forfeit the rest of the season and move on to
by ndnjlaw  (2018-10-17 12:42:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

basketball.

Sheesh, the negativity.


How should people respond
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 13:07:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

At this point?


You act as if it's irrational to have concerns about the team given the track record the past 8 and 20+ seasons.


It is certainly not irrational to have concerns.
by ndnjlaw  (2018-10-17 14:21:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I have been as disappointed as anyone over the travails of the team during the Kelly years (including witnessing in person the Alabama debacle in 2012.) Am I concerned that it could happen again this year ... absolutely.

But this stuff is supposed to be fun, and 7-0 is fun, and I just don't get why a fan should go out of his or her way to belittle our accomplishments and detract from what the team has done so far.

I refuse to feel guilty about enjoying this season and this team.


7-0
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 16:34:23)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Was fun when we regularly went 10-1 or 11-0 and were confident in that.

I'm not saying 7-0 sucks, and I'm not saying it isn't fun, but I'm just not as invested in a 7-0 start after the last 20 years.


For me, fun is national titles.


Maybe I'm like the guy who jumps off the Empire State Bldg.
by ndnjlaw  (2018-10-17 17:32:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

As he passes by a 20th floor window someone asks how it's going and he replies so far so good. :)


And Alabama's 3 greatest wins?
by realmccoy  (2018-10-17 12:21:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Texas A&M (at home), Arkansas and Missouri. They are great, but have played absolutely no one.


If Alabama finishes 12-1
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 13:00:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That means they won the SEC and would have a bevy of very good wins, which would trump our 11-1


What if they finish 11-1?
by potatohouse  (2018-10-17 14:01:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Like last year? Obviously there is a lot in play, but assuming ND loses a close one to USC to finish 11-1, it would be interesting to see how the committee would go. And regardless of any espoused reasoning, if they chose Alabama over ND, (thereby punching them a second consecutive ticket to the playoff without having even made it to their own conference championship), it would be pretty close to signaling that Alabama is an annual auto-qualifier with less than two losses.


Michigan is a top ten team.
by Bruno95  (2018-10-17 10:52:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That’s a good win by any measure.


Not after this coming weekend. *
by KevinPS  (2018-10-17 15:17:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I agree regarding Michigan.
by irpa  (2018-10-17 12:41:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

My point was that ND played them at the best time possible. I don’t think ND will get in with a loss because of their resume unless their are other upsets along the way. No matter, I think they will lose twice.


I bet Tebow’s rants “ND hasn’t played anybody” have ended
by 1NDGal  (2018-10-17 10:59:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

now. Criticizing Michigan is verboten until the tOSU game.


Tebow was hit in the head a few times too many. *
by The Flash  (2018-10-17 13:21:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Tebow is a virgin. *
by Bruno95  (2018-10-17 11:04:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I don't think the SEC East sees it that way. *
by potatohouse  (2018-10-17 11:46:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Neither does the AFC West
by captaineclectic  (2018-10-17 12:24:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Albeit for a different reason.


Exactly right. I think lists are in order. Feel free to add.
by potatohouse  (2018-10-17 12:48:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Things That Tebow Has Fucked
-SEC defenses
-The Pittsburgh Steelers
-Josh McDaniels
-Darren McFadden
-Prayer celebrations


Things That Have Fucked Tebow
-Pro cornerbacks
-Throwing mechanics
-The hairs that connect a mustache to a beard
-Pitchers who don't wait tables in the offseason


You forgot thousands of Filipino foreskins *
by elterrible  (2018-10-17 13:33:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Would explain a lot. *
by 1NDGal  (2018-10-17 11:31:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I think you undersell the Irish
by Vairish84  (2018-10-17 10:49:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There is a lot of recency bias around the Pitt game. It is likely to be the aberration compared to Stanford and Va. Tech.

That said, it would have been nice to dominate as expected, but Narduzzi can coach defense, and it showed. They put a lot of things on the field that Book had not seen before, and it took time to adapt, but they did.

When you look at schedules, ND has played a much tougher schedule than Alabama. Other than Texas A&M, they have not played a team with a winning record yet (unless Missouri has one). Louisville is an historically bad dumpster fire with BVG in charge of the defense. Their other nonconference game to date is a buy game, and their last nonconference game is Citadel. They can't even schedule a top military school.

Yes, they will play Auburn (now a three loss team and fading- sounds like Stanford), LSU (pretty good, on a par with Michigan), Miss State (probably Va. Tech of the west -both are borderline Top 25 teams)and then Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game.

Alabama looks great, but they are dominating teams that they should be dominating. Nothing more than that. Pitt was the first game, post-QB switch, where the offense did not dominate the way it should have.

I want to get back to dominating. We have to play some games against teams that will be better than people give credit for, with the exception of USC who will be playing for the PAC12 championship, given the weakness of their division. With a win over Wisconsin, NW could play for the Big10 Championship.

If we win out and play Alabama in the play-off, we will do better than people think. We might even win.


I don't think it's recency bias.
by KeoughCharles05  (2018-10-17 11:05:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It's confirmation bias. We've had a long history under Kelly of underperforming. We've done so in three games this year against crap teams (Vandy, BSU, Pitt).

The Michigan win is a great win no matter how you slice it. Stanford and Virginia Tech are both underwhelming but solid teams that we dominated. Wake Forest was a solid win against a crap opponent.

So, on the course of the season, with both quarterbacks, we've had solid wins, and crummy wins. I don't think people are just looking at the Pitt game and extrapolating that out. I think people are looking at the broad arc of the Kelly era, seeing consistencies this year with past Kelly versions, and expecting that the results (wins and losses) will start to match the performances (highly inconsistent).

Fortunately for us, our schedule is not that tough. It's possible that we could match poor performances against poor teams, and good performances against better teams the rest of the way and win out. It's also true that the remaining teams on our schedule might be better at football than Pitt, and could actually take advantage of an off-day at the office.


Notre Dame beat Michigan with its backup Qb
by dwjm3  (2018-10-17 10:24:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

and running back...That simply isn’t a good way to analyze. Two people can play that game. If we are focused on quality of opponents Alabama hasn’t beat anybody worth a shit.


He has a point though
by Hanratty5ND  (2018-10-17 10:40:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

ND hasn't really faced a good offense yet thru 7 games.

Lots of people are fellating the defense and Lea.

I will be curious to see how they look vs Syracuse.
That might be the only good offense they face all season.
And I'm not convinced they are uber talented either. They just appear better than all other ND opponents.

ND has lucked out facing many mediocre to bad offenses this year.


Disagree. I think Michigan's offense was good then, as its
by athlete37  (2018-10-17 11:10:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

strength is running he ball. Don't think anyone is going to have much success running the ball on our defense. As good as Love/Pride are, the key to beating us is by beating them


A lot of that is how college football is..
by dwjm3  (2018-10-17 10:54:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

You will face a lot of bad teams over the course of a season. The amount of crap opponents you face is a large part why teams can go undefeated or have one loss. If the schedules were more balanced like the NFL you wouldn’t have multiple undefeated teams at this point of the season.

His point of trying to Pooh Pooh the Michigan win was awful. You can critique Kelly’s flaws without searching for goofy stuff. The Michigan win is a quality win plain and simple.


Laying three eggs at home certainly won't help us in the
by Carlos Huerta  (2018-10-17 09:45:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

evaluation just like the performance at Fenway would've hurt the '15 team had we beat Stanford.


I could be wrong about this, but . . .
by tf86  (2018-10-17 12:11:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I don't think the Committee punishes teams for winning ugly nearly as heavily as we tend to think they do. Even great teams tend to have at least one of those games every year. I suppose it's possible that we have had too many if we're on the bubble, but that shouldn't be a factor if we win out.


Interesting hypothetical question. I can say for certain
by 84david  (2018-10-17 09:35:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

that a 9-3 or 10-2 team will not make the playoff and will get throttled on New Years day.


If ND picks up a loss in the remaining games
by fontoknow  (2018-10-17 08:14:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They should not be in the playoffs. Our remaining strength of schedule wouldn't justify it.


More important than should or shouldn’t
by DakotaDomer  (2018-10-17 08:25:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

(Because the fanboys will argue who shouldn’t be in to death)

If we pick up a loss - in addition to evidence from all the games currently played by contending teams (including us) - it’s pretty clear that we couldn’t compete in the playoffs.

We’re undefeated and don’t even look like we can compete. A loss is not going to improve that.


Alabama and OSU would kick our asses eight days a week
by fontoknow  (2018-10-17 08:28:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Short of a close loss to USC, we should drop like rocks if we were to lose to any other team on our schedule.


Current evidence is probably 6 days a week
by DakotaDomer  (2018-10-17 12:39:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If we remain undefeated we can keep that hope. There could be a magic, destiny, and team belief that would overcome a significant gap in talent, experience, coaching, coaching, and coaching.

If we don’t...it really does become academic whether or not we’d have any chance against the other 3 teams that earn their way in. Maybe we could get a really favorable semifinal matchup but there’s going to be at least 2 of the 3 in the tourney that will beat us 2012 style. I have no interest in going through that again just so we can say we made the playoffs. Give me something the program can build off of.


Alabama for sure, but Ohio State
by irishwest  (2018-10-17 10:10:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

got a good fight from Minnesota. I saw parts of the second half and but for a short missed FG by Minn., the game would have been 20-17 early 4th Quarter. I know that Ohio State could have been playing down ( ala ND versus Pitt), but Minnesota moved the ball. Since Bosa left, their defense is not scary good. Still five games left, so who knows what team we will have come November.


Why?
by Chicagond99  (2018-10-17 09:28:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I'm not arguing that we wouldnt get our ass kicked by Bama (everyone does) and maybe OSU. But if Clemson can recover from a loss against a terrible Syracuse team last year (they were back to #1 before they even played the ACC chsmp game), why couldn't we be afforded the same opportunity against say Northwestern or something?


Because there IS a different standard when it comes to
by IrishEd  (2018-10-17 10:36:41)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

ND...think 1989 and 1993. The talking heads at the WWL are already discounting our strength of schedule. They are not acknowledging ND wins against UM, Stanford or VT, while heaping tons of praise on Bama's wins vs Arkansas State, LA-Lafayette, and soon to be The Citadel. Four of seven wins for ND have gone deep into 4th quarter or were ugly games 3 of which were against inferior talented teams. If ND goes undefeated, but has more squeakers in the remaining 5 games it may not make it into the playoff.


This kind of hyperbole isn't helpful to anyone
by elterrible  (2018-10-17 11:00:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

no one on ESPN is giving Bama props for beating Arkansas St. ND has plenty of flaws and isn't above being criticized.

An undefeated ND team will make the playoff as at least a 3 seed if not higher.


I guess I heard wrong on ESPN radio yesterday afternoon.
by IrishEd  (2018-10-17 15:01:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


This is the rational position
by fontoknow  (2018-10-17 11:09:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

An undefeated ND won't get left out.

ND has flaws. A loss this late in the season, given the quality of the schedule left will likely knock us out of playoff contention ... that seems fair and isn't a product of ESPN being out to get us.


Clemson lost in mid October
by fontoknow  (2018-10-17 09:54:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We are talking late October or November. With no quality games left to prove our selves after .


There's a good chance USC will be ranked when we play them *
by Chicagond99  (2018-10-17 14:14:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Agree.
by RallyingSon  (2018-10-17 08:46:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And that's only if USC has risen back up to at least top-20 in the polls.

(If there are any more games where our offense looks like it did against Pitt, it might not matter how good USC is. The "eye test" would kill us.)


Random observation on 538's playoff predictor.
by RallyingSon  (2018-10-17 12:05:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

538 gives Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State better than a 99% chance of going to the playoff if they win out.

They give NC State a 98% chance.
But Notre Dame only a 91% chance.


They must have some weird assumption about conference membership built into their model.

Edit. Looking at their methodology, it's probably that ND is being penalized (inadvertently or not) in this scenario for not having a conference championship. I think that's a flaw in the model, at least in the case of ND being undefeated. In the real world that would probably only factor into the committee's thinking if they were deciding between a one-loss ND and some other one-loss team.


I'm not sure Ohio State would beat us easily
by notredomer2005  (2018-10-17 08:43:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Bosa is gone. The importance of his loss can't be overstated. Penn State, as much as it hurts me to admit this, whipped them up and down the field for 58 and a half minutes. I certainly don't think Penn State is a better team than Notre Dame.

I'm not saying it would be an Irish win, but I don't think it would be a walk in the park for them.

Alabama... yeah, lights out, Irish.


You took the words right out
by irishwest  (2018-10-17 10:11:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

of my mouth. Alabama is the class of all College football.


You took the words right out
by irishwest  (2018-10-17 10:11:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

of my mouth. Alabama is the class of all College football.


In a playoff game
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 09:13:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

With weeks to prepare.


OSU would throttle us.


Your point about prep time is the key here
by ndzippy  (2018-10-17 10:45:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Given extra time to prepare, great coaches tend to be really hard to beat. Meyer and Saban are great coaches. Brian Kelly is not a great coach. Even if the talent is similar (and I'm not sure it is if we're talking about impact players), the coaching gap is so pronounced that it's hard to imagine ND keeping up for long.

Frankly, that's why we should care as much about our seed as we do about just getting in to the playoffs. If you're going to get one of these guys, it's much easier in round 2 of the playoffs, because they won't have a month to pick you apart. I'd prefer to play Clemson in Round 1 and take my chances with Bama and/or OSU in Round 2.

Consider this: In the last three years, Bama is 3-0 in Round 1, and has won by an average score of 29-4. In Round 2, Bama is 2-1, with an average score of 35-31.

Saban with a month to prepare is almost impossible to defeat.


In good faith I cannot dispute your point on prep time
by notredomer2005  (2018-10-17 10:16:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

ND would be at a distinct disadvantage in preparation.

But I just don't see OSU as world-beaters. There's a certain Notre Dame-esque tendency to play to their lesser talented opponents in this year's Ohio State. As we well know, that can spell trouble against teams with individual talent at spots across the field.


They have problems with their secondary
by dwjm3  (2018-10-17 09:48:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Meyer can’t scheme those problems away with extra prep.


OSU secondary >>>>>> Pitt Secondary
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 10:59:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Hell, look at the secondaries we've played against.

I know they have problems, but on the whole, their team matches up very well against ours. Very very well in fact.


Our issue against Pitt wasn't their secondary
by elterrible  (2018-10-17 11:01:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

it was the O-line and Book's lack of recognition of what the Defense was doing.


Right
by HTownND  (2018-10-17 11:13:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And who do you think has a better DL and LB group, Pitt or OSU?

I was just responding to the prior post that suggested that OSU has secondary issues.

Yes, they do, but their defense is world's better than Pitt, as is their secondary, and I assure you, they would play us the same way Pitt did, with press coverage and daring us to beat them over the top, even without Bosa. Moreover, they are getting a bunch of previously injured players on D back this week (except Bosa, who is done and heading to the NFL).


Gotcha
by elterrible  (2018-10-17 11:18:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We agree re: OSU. We also haven't played a QB anywhere near Haskins' level this year.


Kelly can’t outscheme anyone let alone Meyer. *
by Irpa  (2018-10-17 10:15:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Not what I said *
by dwjm3  (2018-10-17 10:16:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Of course not!
by Boomer80  (2018-10-17 07:38:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Late season losses have always been much worse in college football than early season losses. At this point in the season for ND to make it they can’t afford a loss. Just pray that if they tun the table they don’t get to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl again. It will be just as ugly as the last time.


What if we lose one of our early season games?
by Chuck84  (2018-10-17 09:12:01)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That may be possible due to the verb tense used in this thread.


In the future, "does" will be the only acceptable tense
by sprack  (2018-10-17 11:07:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And will be spelled "duz".


I think probably slightly less than 50/50.
by revressbo  (2018-10-16 23:30:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

First, I don't think timing of loss really matters much anymore. Alabama lost their last game of the year last year and still made it.

We pretty much know that an 11-1 ND is getting in over any Pac 12 team, with the possible exception of Oregon if it doesn't lose the rest of the year. But for simplicity sake, I think it's safe to assume 11-1 ND is in over any Pac 12 team (especially if the loss isn't to USC, because that further hurts Pac 12 SOS/reputation).

From the Big Ten, at most, one of Ohio State or Michigan would get in over 11-1 ND. I don't see a way both would. Obviously, if Michigan loses again, they have no shot of being ahead of 11-1 ND. If a 1-loss Michigan beats Ohio State (and therefore wins the division), that means Ohio State's best win (Penn State) would have 3 losses (PSU already has two and would by default have another to Michigan in this hypothetical). I don't think the committee would have 11-1 OSU over 11-1 ND, who would have a win over a 12-1 Michigan. And it's very possible 11-1 ND would be ahead of both Michigan and OSU if OSU doesn't win the division, even if Michigan wins the conference, because we beat Michigan H2H. But we'll be conservative and say the Big Ten gets one in over 11-1 ND. (If, somehow, a 12-1 Iowa wins the Big Ten over previously-undefeated Ohio State, that could make things interesting and possibly get both of them in the playoff. But I'd be stunned if that happens.)

Only one ACC team (the winner of Clemson-NC State) has a realistic chance of being ahead of 11-1 ND, in my opinion, especially if Clemson is the winner. If Clemson beats NC State, NC State won't be able to finish better than 9-1 against FBS opponents since they played an FCS team and their game against West Virginia was canceled. They very likely would finish with no ranked wins. It'd be virtually a certainty 11-1 ND would be ahead of a 1-loss NC State. If NC State beats Clemson this weekend and wins the conference, it's possible 11-1 Clemson could get the nod over 11-1 ND, but their schedule is weak, and I think Texas A&M (their best win) will falter a few more times down the stretch hurting their SOS. Regardless, I don't see NC State winning this weekend in Death Valley, anyway. We'll say, at most, one ACC team (Clemson) over 11-1 ND.

I think it's fair to guess though that there would be 0 Pac 12 teams, 1 Big Ten team and 1 ACC team over 11-1 ND. So two spots.

Where it gets interesting is the SEC and Big 12. If Alabama goes undefeated (or wins the SEC with one loss), the SEC would almost certainly get only get one spot. But if Alabama loses to LSU (who ends up winning the Division) or UGA/UF in the SEC Championship and Bama finishes with only one loss, the SEC could get both the SEC Champ and 1-loss Bama in the playoff.

In the Big 12, at most, only one team will finish with one loss. But I think there's a pretty good chance that team would finish ahead of 11-1 ND. Still, it's also a decent chance there is no Big 12 team that finishes with only one loss. WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all already have a loss. West Virginia still plays Texas and Oklahoma. Besides hoping for upsets, of course, hopefully West Virginia would beat Texas, Oklahoma would beat West Virginia and Texas would beat Oklahoma again in the Big 12 championship game. But there's also good likelihood of upsets occurring.

Finally, it'd be nice to have UCF lose. I don't think UCF would get in over 11-1 ND, but best to not even have that be an option.

tl;dr- 11-1 ND would probably be in over all Pac 12 and possibly behind no more than 1 ACC and 1 Big Ten. So if Alabama wins the SEC (or loses two games) and WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all lose one more game, 11-1 ND should be in. But if even one of those things don't happen (either Bama finishes with one loss and doesn't win the SEC OR the Big 12 champ has only one loss), it's hard to see 11-1 ND getting in, barring the ACC Champ having two losses or Michigan winning the Big Ten and the committee picking 11-1 ND over Michigan due to H2H.

tl;dr (part 2) - go 12-0 and don't worry about any of this.



Agree with all, except I wouldn't count on the committee
by rockmcd  (2018-10-17 14:06:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

placing an 11-1 ND ahead of an 11-1 Ohio St or Clemson. Regardless of what the "official" selection criteria may be, these committee members know that both these teams have beaten Alabama to win championships in recent years. When in doubt, they'll err on the side of selecting the program that has been generally stronger over multiple years. And I can't say I disagree. That's what they did in 2014 when they selected Ohio St over TCU & Baylor, and that decision was validated when Ohio St went on to win the title.

The simplest way for 11-1 ND to make it would be:
Alabama, OSU, and Clemson win out; Oregon loses to somebody; Big 12 winner has 2 losses.


Excellent analysis. Add in the human factor, however, and I
by 1NDGal  (2018-10-17 10:57:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Think the likelihood goes down to 10%.

An undefeated major school can’t be kept out. The voters wouldn’t dare. The legitimacy of the whole “system” would be sharply in question.

If ND loses from here on out, it will have been to an unranked or barely ranked team (USC). The Greek Chorus will be heard far and wide: “They haven’t played anybody! OK, maybe they played one somebody and they only won by 7 at home! They didn’t have to play a conference champ!” The voters can do 2 SEC, 1 true ACC, 1 B1G and it will look fine.


Great analysis-- thank you
by athlete37  (2018-10-16 23:51:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I bet if ND has 1 loss and Michigan has 1 loss
by randalgraves  (2018-10-16 23:27:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Michigan will make the playoff over ND


Consistent with the 1993 "precedent" *
by ShermanOaksND  (2018-10-16 23:28:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


1993 was still worse
by Backer-BND94  (2018-10-17 09:32:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Michigan lost its first game. FSU had lost in November. FSU did end the season beating #7 Florida @ Florida, but I'd assume if the scenario occurred OSU would be ranked higher than #7 (and that game is @ OSU.


“They don't think it be like it is, but it do.” *
by Giggity_Giggity  (2018-10-16 22:48:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I doubt a 1 loss ND makes it
by co4nd  (2018-10-16 22:45:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think the only way is if that loss is to a highly ranked opponent at the beginning of the season, like Georgia last year.


Will a 1 loss team make the playoff? Depends
by jt  (2018-10-16 22:17:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Basically it depends on what your rank was prior to the loss, who you lost to, and by how much.

ND margin for error is very, very slim. If we climb to 1 or 2 and lose by 1 or 2 to Sc, than maybe.


The team that will beat ND will have a good DL/CB's and O
by Hanratty5ND  (2018-10-16 20:58:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Northwestern: Have not seen them play but I'm told they have a good DL. Not sure about CB's. They have a pretty good offense--but good enough to beat ND?

FSU:I know FSU has the DL and CB's to potentially give ND's offense fits. They don't scare me as much because their offense should not be good enough to beat ND.

Syracuse: This one scares me most of the last 5. They have both the DL and CB's to cause ND's offense problems. They are very strong there. Couple that with them probably having the best offense that ND will face in the remaining games. They average 43 points per game. This will be a stress test for ND's defense. ND will have to play very well to win this one.

USC: Not sure how good USC's DL is--but it might not matter if ND's OL continues to languish. If ND had a 2015 or 2017 type OL, this game would be almost a sure thing. But since they don't, it will be hold your breath and hope the refs don't screw us too. USC's offense appears mediocre but could catch fire considering their weapons and youth at QB.

I expect ND to lose at least 1 game in November. Either Syracuse or USC.
Not being able to run the ball worth a shit will catch up to this team. Thanks Kelly.
I hope to hell I'm wrong.


Good breakdown *
by irishhawk49  (2018-10-21 08:01:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Good breakdown *
by irishhawk49  (2018-10-17 07:06:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I cant figure NW out and never have been under Fitzgerald...
by supernd  (2018-10-16 20:45:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They lose games they shouldnt and then turn around and play their best ball against ranked teams. I suspect that they play out of their ads against us.


The Jacksonville Jaguars of college football. *
by G.K.Chesterton  (2018-10-16 22:12:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


10-1 Last 11 Big10 Games *
by Jh_chi  (2018-10-16 21:47:23)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Lucky for us
by alleghenyirish  (2018-10-17 08:29:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We're not in the Big 10!


Four of those wins in OT.
by G.K.Chesterton  (2018-10-16 22:22:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Sooner or later, the law of averages will catch up to them.


They concern me more than USC at this point
by athlete37  (2018-10-16 20:59:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Typically we have run into soft USC teams since Carroll left. We have gotten torched when we were also soft, but this defense will make USC quit as the game wears on.


book did not have a bad game - he had a bad half
by ocdomer78  (2018-10-16 20:41:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

i think you drastically overestimate how poorly he performed. go back and look at the pass that drew the PI call as well as the TD passes. we should be encouraged by how he performed when it mattered. to me, he has "it" - that ill-defined trait that separates the good ones from those that merely have the arm or legs.

to your other points -the offensive line and kick coverage play is indefensible.


Book 2nd Half
by JimK  (2018-10-17 03:16:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

11/12 for 159 2 TD 1 INT

Book's INT was the one official INC. His pass to Claypool at 7:26 in the 4th was also INC due to Pitt's PI, so the attempt never happened officially.

Inconsistent OL played a part in this, but as off-kilter as Book appeared to be, he never got the deer-in-the-headlights look that afflicted Wimbush in similar situations...

...and coming back in the second half and esp. late in a game has not been our strong suit for many a year. If Book's performance overall didn't have an All-American sheen to it, neither did he appear to be rattled or to crumble under the pressure.

Not a bad showing for a guy starting his fifth game.




Positive: he hit a deep ball. Negative: pocket presence was
by frosh  (2018-10-16 21:52:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

worse.


But it was much better in the 2nd half. *
by ndroman21  (2018-10-17 08:18:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Because there was no pocket *
by acrossdmiddle  (2018-10-16 22:06:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Generally not true
by oneill3b  (2018-10-16 22:35:40)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Go watch the sack that killed the first drive. Two others were not as egregious but were similar.


Agree whole heartedly. He bailed after his first read
by Bagimus Maximus  (2018-10-17 22:25:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

on quite a few drop backs. There were thows there to be had and time to make them. He did not show me the ability to anticipate and throw receivers open.

His first INT was a result. Bailed the pocket and did not anticipate the receiver coming open into space. He waited until he saw him open then made the throw...too late the corner made the read and the pick


He bailed early at times but his protection was awful
by acrossdmiddle  (2018-10-17 08:25:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Plus, I’m not sure he’s tall enough to throw effectively from a collapsing pocket, or big enough to absorb the punishment.


Avery Davis was lost in pass pro - so much so...
by irishdemon  (2018-10-16 23:30:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

... I don’t think they can have him out there on passing plays anymore.

I’ll cut the kid some slack - he was playing quarterback not too long ago and now he’s being asked to locate and turn back corner and linebacker blitzes.

You would think the coaching staff would know that going in. I blame them.


Right, isnt that the excuse to keep Dexter out of game? *
by Voisman  (2018-10-16 23:59:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Dexter had a few nice pickups in the first half
by elterrible  (2018-10-17 09:25:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

he seems to be fine in pass protection this year.