I think probably slightly less than 50/50.
by revressbo (2018-10-16 23:30:25)

In reply to: Does a 1 loss ND make the playoff?  posted by ndmdchgo


First, I don't think timing of loss really matters much anymore. Alabama lost their last game of the year last year and still made it.

We pretty much know that an 11-1 ND is getting in over any Pac 12 team, with the possible exception of Oregon if it doesn't lose the rest of the year. But for simplicity sake, I think it's safe to assume 11-1 ND is in over any Pac 12 team (especially if the loss isn't to USC, because that further hurts Pac 12 SOS/reputation).

From the Big Ten, at most, one of Ohio State or Michigan would get in over 11-1 ND. I don't see a way both would. Obviously, if Michigan loses again, they have no shot of being ahead of 11-1 ND. If a 1-loss Michigan beats Ohio State (and therefore wins the division), that means Ohio State's best win (Penn State) would have 3 losses (PSU already has two and would by default have another to Michigan in this hypothetical). I don't think the committee would have 11-1 OSU over 11-1 ND, who would have a win over a 12-1 Michigan. And it's very possible 11-1 ND would be ahead of both Michigan and OSU if OSU doesn't win the division, even if Michigan wins the conference, because we beat Michigan H2H. But we'll be conservative and say the Big Ten gets one in over 11-1 ND. (If, somehow, a 12-1 Iowa wins the Big Ten over previously-undefeated Ohio State, that could make things interesting and possibly get both of them in the playoff. But I'd be stunned if that happens.)

Only one ACC team (the winner of Clemson-NC State) has a realistic chance of being ahead of 11-1 ND, in my opinion, especially if Clemson is the winner. If Clemson beats NC State, NC State won't be able to finish better than 9-1 against FBS opponents since they played an FCS team and their game against West Virginia was canceled. They very likely would finish with no ranked wins. It'd be virtually a certainty 11-1 ND would be ahead of a 1-loss NC State. If NC State beats Clemson this weekend and wins the conference, it's possible 11-1 Clemson could get the nod over 11-1 ND, but their schedule is weak, and I think Texas A&M (their best win) will falter a few more times down the stretch hurting their SOS. Regardless, I don't see NC State winning this weekend in Death Valley, anyway. We'll say, at most, one ACC team (Clemson) over 11-1 ND.

I think it's fair to guess though that there would be 0 Pac 12 teams, 1 Big Ten team and 1 ACC team over 11-1 ND. So two spots.

Where it gets interesting is the SEC and Big 12. If Alabama goes undefeated (or wins the SEC with one loss), the SEC would almost certainly get only get one spot. But if Alabama loses to LSU (who ends up winning the Division) or UGA/UF in the SEC Championship and Bama finishes with only one loss, the SEC could get both the SEC Champ and 1-loss Bama in the playoff.

In the Big 12, at most, only one team will finish with one loss. But I think there's a pretty good chance that team would finish ahead of 11-1 ND. Still, it's also a decent chance there is no Big 12 team that finishes with only one loss. WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all already have a loss. West Virginia still plays Texas and Oklahoma. Besides hoping for upsets, of course, hopefully West Virginia would beat Texas, Oklahoma would beat West Virginia and Texas would beat Oklahoma again in the Big 12 championship game. But there's also good likelihood of upsets occurring.

Finally, it'd be nice to have UCF lose. I don't think UCF would get in over 11-1 ND, but best to not even have that be an option.

tl;dr- 11-1 ND would probably be in over all Pac 12 and possibly behind no more than 1 ACC and 1 Big Ten. So if Alabama wins the SEC (or loses two games) and WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all lose one more game, 11-1 ND should be in. But if even one of those things don't happen (either Bama finishes with one loss and doesn't win the SEC OR the Big 12 champ has only one loss), it's hard to see 11-1 ND getting in, barring the ACC Champ having two losses or Michigan winning the Big Ten and the committee picking 11-1 ND over Michigan due to H2H.

tl;dr (part 2) - go 12-0 and don't worry about any of this.





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