Yes, there's no excuse whatsoever for losing a home game.
by bleedsgreen04 (2019-05-23 17:50:14)
Edited on 2019-05-23 18:06:21

In reply to: You think our schedule is easy?  posted by mocopdx

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While I don't put as much stock in S&P as many (it's a far, far cry from KenPom), it's not a bad starting point (follow my link) when making 2019 projections.

I don't buy Michigan as being that much better than the Irish, IMO that game is a toss up at worst. UGA will be a very, very tough game, perhaps the most impressive win of BK's tenure if he is able to pull it off. Both of those games being on the road will make them impressive wins indeed, I'm convinced BK's ceiling is 1-1 there, barring a surprising down year from UGA.

After that you have a sharp decline... USC and Virginia Tech both come in a full 17 and 18 spots lower than the Irish, respectively, and the Irish get them both at home.

I haven't been that impressed with VT's coach so far, and while JT Daniels and the youngest St. Brown could pose a threat, I think there's a distinct possibility USC will be coming to South Bend with an interim head coach.

Stanford is the next toughest at 20 pegs below the Irish, and while I think their QB is also pretty good, their offensive line will not be great (similar to USC,)and they'll also have to replace Bryce Love and Arcega Whiteside and their recruiting took a bit of a nosedive for a few years there. I would hope that BK has that game circled about 5 times on his calendar, the Stanford-on-the-road monkey is the largest one remaining on his back outside of a big bowl/playoff win.

Virginia is the only other team even remaining in the top 50 after that... while I don't put a BK surprise stinker out of the realm of possibility, we should also demand that this staff beat the crap out of 8-9 teams on this schedule considering this is the most stable QB situation Kelly has had in years, the offensive line only lost 1 player from the end of the season to now, it will be Clark Lea's 3rd year in the system and 2nd as DC, etc.

Navy has not been competent for a while now, and you'll notice them near the bottom of the list. They've basically traded places with Army over the last few years. Nea-Amintillado has surely bought himself some leeway, but I wonder if that will start to wear thin with another poor showing this year. If they give the Irish a tough game a week after Duke we've already had a terrible season by that point.



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