I tried to look at position groups and pick one player who needs to elevate his game to the next level this year.
OL: J. Patterson. If he is consistent and settles into this role he could solidify an already emerging and talented OL.
DL: K. Hinish. I think he found out last year what its going to take to be a good DL at this level. He will split time with Lacey who is without a doubt pushing him in practice.
QB: P.Jurkovic. Needs to be serviceable and trusted should Book get injured.
RB: T.Jones. Armstrong will be the featured RB but at some point Jones will be called on to carry the load to win a game this year.
WR: K. Austin. Most naturally gifted WR on the team. Stay out of the doghouse and on the field.
LB: A. Bilal. In a position group with many questions, he needs to lead on and off the field with the young guys. Last year for him.
TE: C.Kmet. Has everything to be a great TE.
DB: D. Vaughn. Learned some tough lessons in the Clemson game. Potential to be very good.
S: Jalen Elliot. The other piece of the puzzle with Gilman.
K: J. Doerer. He should hold off Leonard in camp to win the job. Room for improvement especially on KO's.
P: J.Bramblett. Welcome to college football kid. Don't fuck this up.
who needs to elevate his game because it is inevitable that more of going to be thrown on his plate. Whether fair or not, and whether wise or not, more will rest on his shoulders.
In order to win the schedules tougher games he has to make plays. Plays out of his traditional comfort zone within the Offense.
And yes he has to shoulder that load this year. Like you mentioned, wise or not, he will have more on his plate this year.
is not well crafted for us.
Two tomato can games early on will show us nothing. However, once we get to Georgia, it's unlikely we'll be able to move the ball if Book can't hit a deep ball or two. But, the next two games are tomato cans as well. The problem is the two games after that are real teams against whom we'll need Book to be able to hit the long ball.
If Book doesn't display that capability against UGA, we could enter the USC match at 4-1, and exit October at 4-3, with no chances for any meaningful redemption. The last five games could be a real slog toward a mediocre bowl matchup to get to that most important of milestones "double digit wins!" I have no interest in hearing the Pennsylvania contingent talk about how Jurkovec can shoot lightning bolts out of his ballsack for the last two months of the season, and watching yet another internecine QB controversy bubble up during a meaningless stretch of games. That's how a 10-3 season can suck ass.
If Book comes out against UGA and hits some long balls? Win or lose (close loss), I'll be interested in the rest of the season. If he sticks to the short stuff and can't hit anything deep? Even in a close loss, I'll be far less interested in the remainder.
I like that you included Lamb and Griffith. If they both stay healthy we will see both of them surface around mid-season as really good players.
shoulders. We won't win unless Book has excellent games.
I agree that either Okwara or Kareem are the best players on the team though.
Given the way that ND plays, if Book goes down the season is shot. If impactful just means "most likely to affect the outcome of a game," then I'd definitely put the kicker and punter on this list. You have to imagine that ND will need to execute a handful of punts and FGs in tense, noisy situations in Ann Arbor and Athens.
Kelly's wacky history has been that inserting inexperienced QBs has saved the season.
2010: ND won all 4 of Rees's starts after Crist went down.
2015: ND went to Fiesta Bowl after Zaire went down.
2018: ND went to undefeated regular season after benching Wimbush after 3 games.
I don't expect that Jurkovec would throw for more yards than Book, but the running game might become more reliable if Kelly is inclined to rely less on the QB.
If he were a more dynamic passer (e.g., ability to effectively throw the long ball), I would have placed him higher. As it stands, I elevated the guys who are certain early-round NFL draft picks. The counter argument is the severe drop-off from Book to his back-up, which impacts the team's chances of winning.
In the past we've always defaulted to the best pure football players in any tiebreaker, so that's what I did here. This is also why I ran out of room for the specialists, which I agree doesn't seem right. Yoon made the cut last year, although he was regarded as a difference maker.
from Book to Jurkovic. Lack of in game experience? Inside reports of progress?
His decision making and throwing motion were problematic, to put it gently. He can't be considered "game ready" at this point.
Which way Book will go this year.
Book's rating last year was 154
Prior to him, here is how prior QBs faired in their first and second season as a starter.
Rees
2010 Rating - 132
2011 Rating - 133.4
Golson
2012 - 131
2014 - 143.6
Kizer
2015 - 150.1
2016 - 145.6
Wimbush
2017 - 121.4
2018 - 113.3 (and replaced by Book)
Is he going to make the 10 point jump like Golson (who had a whole year off/out of school), will he stay flat like Rees, or will he regress like Kizer/Wimbush? The answer to that question will go a long way to determining how 2019 is going to shake out.
Starting with the passer ratings you listed, I've added the win/loss records in games they were the featured QB (applying some judgment here, I'm giving Rees the loss in 2010 Tulsa because he entered the game in the first half, giving Crist the loss in 2011 USF because Rees entered at halftime already behind by 3 scores, and giving Rees the loss in 2011 Stanford).
Rees
2010 Rating - 132 (4-1)
2011 Rating - 133.4 (8-4)
Golson
2012 - 131 (11-1)
2014 - 143.6 (7-5)
Kizer
2015 - 150.1 (8-3, or 9-3 if we count the UVA game)
2016 - 145.6 (4-8)
Wimbush
2017 - 121.4 (8-3)
2018 - 113.3 (4-0)
The pattern here seems to be that as Rees, Golson, and Kizer's passer ratings improved or stayed about the same, the team's record got much worse. Sure there are other variables such as defense, but this seems to reinforce the consensus opinion that Kelly does a better job helping 1st year QBs manage the game than he does with 2nd year QBs who are asked to carry the offense.
There wasn't any discernible improvement. Part of this may be the influx of young receivers into the mix, but Book's inability to connect on the long ball remained unchanged.
All is said and done.
They have Gillman as the #57 player in the country for 2019.
Or is it too early?
a list of guys who HAD BETTER kick butt in 2019 else we’re screwed?
‘Cuz these guys, in this order, have to crush it this year or it’s Hello 7-5. I think.